The Rural Voice, 1987-01, Page 66NEWSLETTER - Bruce County Federation of Agriculture
446 10th St., Hanover, Ontario N4N 1P9
A WISH FOR THE SEASON
As December passes and the
snow begins to fly, we all start
reminiscing about the past year
— things that have passed
through the year, things we have
hoped for, things accomplished,
jobs that maybe weren't even
tackled.
Christmas festivities are upon
us, and New Year's celebrations
are around the corner. The
shortest day, December 21, has
passed, and the days get pro-
gressively longer.
We look forward to the new
year, to putting 1986 behind us
and having a fresh year to start
all over again. We have new or
perhaps renewed dreams for the
year, and many things to mull
over on those cold winter days
as we make plans for the future.
We all seem to be so caught
up in ourselves, in our problems
and our finances. Maybe we do
have problems, and maybe
things don't go the way they are
supposed to go. But things
never seem to go the way they
are planned.
Regardless of our problems
and how difficult things seem to
be, things aren't that bad.
Most of us have a warm cosy
place to live, food in ample
supply, and good friends. Most
important of all, we have family
with whom to share the good
times and bad. The goodness of
our families is more than most of
us deserve. Yet at least half the
time we fail to appreciate our
family members during the rest
of the year the way we appre-
519-364-3050
ciate them through sharing joy,
love, and celebrations at Christ-
mas time.
Perhaps for the new year we
could learn to see and value the
good things there are without
having always to be reminded to
remember.
We as farmers should surely
be able to cultivate an under-
standing of valuable things
rather than always dwelling on
the bad. Let us be practical too,
though, because things never
turn out exactly the way we plan
them. If we always do our best,
then we should be reasonably
satisfied.
The spirit of Christmas was
meant to be celebrated all year
round.
Doug and Diane Nickel
COMMODITIES IN '87: OUTLOOK VS. STRATEGY
What's in store? There are no pat
answers; if there were, life would be
too simple! Remember, though, two
concepts: outlook versus strategy.
Having an outlook on a particular mar-
ket is nice, and especially so when that
outlook turns out to be correct. But it
is imperative to plan a strategy, no
doubt based on the outlook, but with
provisions for the possibility that the
outlook was dead wrong.
Corn — In short, the fundamentals
remain negative. World grain produc-
tion in 1986 was high, U.S. com in-
ventories are at their highest in his-
tory, and Soviet interest in U.S. corn
appears minimal. Government farm
programs, including the acreage set-
aside and the generic P1K certificate
programs, are structured to lessen the
supply coming to market next year and
to flush out current inventories.
**HEDGERS** must consider
several opportunities. Holders of old
crop corn might anticipate some Ontar-
io basis activity. Traditional futures
strength in February and around plant-
ing time may present marketing oppor-
62 THE RURAL VOICE
tunities. New crop producers must ex-
amine 1987 futures prices, familiarize
themselves with basis, and calculate
their individual production costs.
Soybeans — Not too much to
get enthusiastic about in the oilseeds
complex. High world oil production,
especially palm oil, improved Pacific
Rim production, and a good outlook
for South American production also
decreased interest in U.S. soybeans.
**HEDGERS** might consider
the following periods to examine both
old crop sales and new crop hedges:
January -February Concems about
the progress of the South American
bean crop may create volatility.
April U.S. planting concerns often
create marketing opportunities.
July -August Typical hot, dry sum-
mer weather could bring speculation
into the market.
September Harvest concerns some-
times create a marketing opportunity.
Remember that the most success-
ful marketers spread their sales out
over the year and have a contingency
plan as part of their strategy.
Livestock — Most analysts
are going into 1987 with a generally
friendly attitude towards the livestock
complex. Fed -cattle marketings will
increase seasonally in early 1987 to
slightly higher levels from a year ago.
These slightly higher marketings may
lead to somewhat lower fed -cattle
prices. Inventories of cattle on feed are
still limited and this fundamental
should have a steadying influence.
Watch for the Quarterly Hogs and
Pigs Report due December 22. This
report will include inventory estimates
for not only the 10 -state reporting
area, but for the entire U.S. Analysts
are looking for inventory levels below
those of a year ago and also for hints
of future expansion.
The reluctance of agricultural len-
ders has dampened the historical pro-
duction increases that normally accom-
pany the low grain price/high meat
price scenario. **HEDGERS** must
not become complacent. Good luck!O
By David Clarke