The Rural Voice, 1987-01, Page 13much of a prospect for substantial im-
provements, although I think in corn
there probably will be an improvement
in the basis.
For plantings in 1987, it looks to
me that soybean acreage could go
up in the States, where corn acreage is
going to be down quite substantially
because of U.S. farm programs. And
on top of that, the ratio between the
price for beans and the price for com
favours bean plantings in the States,
so that will affect Ontario plantings.
I think we're probably going to in-
crease soybean acreage compared to
corn acreage in 1987.
As far as prices in livestock, I
think hogs are probably going to
move downward a bit through the early
winter, but that's probably because of
the way the futures prices are in
Chicago right now.
In cattle, prices remain pretty
healthy. The only problem there is
the price of replacements. I think if
you're in a feedlot operation you
should pencil out what you can afford
to pay for replacements, and be careful.
Sheep look pretty good. They've
been running fairly strong in pricing
for the past six months, roughly.
There seems to be an increasing
interest in sheep production — as sort
of an altemative method of getting
into livestock.
The wheat board is projecting a
substantial increase in the red
wheats compared to the white
wheats, although the yields in some of
the red wheats haven't been as impres-
sive as they were built up to be ... A
lot of those yield predictions were
based on intensive cereal management
practices, which are expensive, and if
farmers don't follow through on the
correct application of fertilizer and the
timing of it then we don't see those
types of improvements in yield in red
wheats.
If you want to sum
up 1987, it seems to me
like a holding year. If
a farmer can make it
through 1987, I can see
some Tight at the end of
the tunnel. But you've
got to get through '87.
Brian Doidge
Lecturer in Marketing
and Farm Economics
Ridgetown College
We can't just sit
back and wait for
higher prices, we have
to do something to survive in the
meantime. You have to know
what's going on in your operation
financially. We've harped on this for
years and years. Productions levels
must be up to scratch. The argu-
ment we often get is that it just adds
to the whole surplus and everyone
gets a lower price. Individuals
looking at their own survival have
to look at being more productive.
"Profit motive" is a quote I often
use. A person's objective is to be
paying income tax. If you're not in
the situation of paying income tax,
you're probably going behind.0
Barry Tolton
Agricultural
Representative
Grey County
About 30 years ago, I heard this
statement at a business seminar
"Any business that has stood the
test of time has to be profitable;
otherwise, it will cease to exist."
This does not mean, of course,
that every month there will be a
profit, or that everyone engaged
in that business will make a profit;
nevertheless, on the average there
will be a profit. Profits come most
frequently to those who keep their
cost of production lowest, and loss-
es accrue most often to those whose
cost of production is highest.
I believe this statement is as true
today as it was in the 1950s. Good
luck in 1987.
Ross S. Proctor
Part-owner of Bodmin Ltd.,
R. R. 5 Brussels — a mixed farm
producing beef, hogs, chicken
broilers, seed barley, corn,
hay, and pasture.
FROM A
BROILER
OPERATION:
I think basically that as broiler
farmers we're all very thankful for
the stability of our industry, and we
have good demand, an expanding
market, and good prices. And that's
not only at the farm gate but also at
the wholesale level, which means that
all sectors of our industry are doing
well. This is without any need for
subsidization or any other help.
A major concern is with free trade.
We're watching that very carefully
because our industry would be gone in a
very short time if the border was opened
completely to American chicken. We
worry about being traded off.
The other concern is with the pro-
cessor section of our industry. There is
some very difficult competition going
on for market share between processors,
and it's causing difficulties for our whole
industry and for our marketing system.
John Maaskant
Chairman, District 2
Broiler Producers'
Marketing Board
November 19, 1986 - An
inductive analysis of the
export market potential for
North American grain and
livestock products indic-
ates many constraints. In
fact, it appears likely
that a shrinkage of market
opportunities is highly
possible. This means that
grain and livestock ouput
will need to be more geared
to domestic needs. Those
export markets that cur-
rently exist will need to
be examined for future
potential, and other mar-
kets will have to be sought
out. But until these mar-
kets have been verified, it
is very dangerous to assume
their existence. That is
what created the current
difficulties.
A. Douglas Mutch
Director of Economic
Research
Livestock Feed Board
I* Ilk
The challenge for '87? I think that's
just survival. The other challenge
for '87 is to instill into the heads of
government the desperate need for
long-term planning for agriculture.
And I mean Tong -term, not till the
next election time.
Ian Clarke
Sheep Producer
Bruce County -
JANUARY 1987 11