The Rural Voice, 1999-04, Page 72GREY
County Federation of Agriculture NEWSLETTER
446 10th St., Hanover, Ontario N4N 1P9
Email: grey Cdofa.on ca Website www.ofa.on ca grey
519-364-3050 or 1-800-275-9551
• The Rural Voice is provided to all Grey
County Farmers by the GCFA.
Did you ever wonder why things
happen the way they do? If it is just a
coincidence. a matter of luck or is it
foreseeable'' I believe that a lot of past
occurrences were predictable, when you
add in the boom theory.
The boom I'm referring to. is the
baby boom. This generation spans from
1946 to about 1965. Most people know
why the boom occurred. but the fact that
the generation prior was dwarfed by the
depression. and the generation following
it was relatively smaller. also intensities
the effect of the boomers. In 1921 the
average number of children born to a
woman stood at about 3.5. By the mid -
1930s it had dropped to about 2.6. By
1959 the fertility rate had skyrocketed to
almost 4. Today it's back down under
two.
As this generation ages it tends to
change the supply and demand of almost
everything. In the 60s we saw new
schools being built everywhere. In the
70s and 80s when interest rates went
through the roof, was about the time
when the boomers were coming of age,
going out on their own, so they would
need furniture. cars, education, and
entertainment. It all took money they
didn't have. This increased the demand
for money. which increased the interest
rates. The 1980s saw real estate take a
run, not enough houses for the people to
be housed in.
When Chrysler came out with the
minivan. was it luck, or did they figure
out that the boomers would need them
for their young families?
The boomers are like a big bulge of
water going through a hose. This is the
way it looks in the economy of the
country. As they work their way through
the demands change. As they age, so
does the average age of the country.
When you are young you tend to spend
more and earn less (from 25 to 34 years
of age). First car, house, and starting a
family, this all takes money, usually
more than you make. So you borrow.
GREY COUNTY FEDERATION OF
AGRICULTURE
DIRECTORS' MEETING
Thursday, April 22, 1999
8:00 p.m.
OMAFRA Boardroom, Markdale
Members are welcome to attend.
68 THE RURAL VOICE
The Big Boom theory
Now it more money is being borrowed
than saved, interest rates will go up. The
country also spends more to create jobs,
and try to keep the economy moving,
that is when the deficit started.
From age 35 to 44, people hit an
equilibrium, that's when you spend the
same as you earn. When the country's
average age reached that stage the
deficit stopped growing. Right now the
average age is in the mid-40s. This is
when people start to save for their
retirement. they also hit their peak
earning potential. Now for the country
this also is the time when the deficit will
be paid down, due to the extra tax
money coming in from these salaries.
There is the possibility that we may
even see the day when the province or
country has a surplus.
Now let's see how this affects us in
agriculture. We all know what happens
when the borrowing increases, then
interest rates go up (eg. of the 1970s).
The increased demand for farms
increases, real estate prices go up.
Lately the ability to expand, modernize,
or just prepare for the next generation,
has given rise to a major increase in the
number of new barns being built.
Right now baby boomers are
between 35 and 54 years old.
Traditionally the crowd over -45 is the
biggest group of owners of second
homes, be they cottages, trailer homes,
or country home. This won't be as hot a
market as when they bought their first
house, but it will affect it some,
especially closer to the bigger cities.
They just want a place to get away from
the rat race. Then possibly rent the farm
back to farmers.
By the year 2009 some economists
predict that the Canada Pension Plan
will run out of money, because there
will be too few workers paying in to
cover for the pensions being paid out.
What this means is that people will have
to save for their own retirement. Now if
you have more money going into
savings, and Tess being borrowed,
interest rates will likely go down. Low
interest rates slows the growth of the
nest egg, so everybody is going to be
looking for better returns. Mutual funds
and the stock market will be the most
popular place to invest, but look out
with -the glut of boomers coming, the
restriction of 80 per cent of investment
having to be in the Canadian stocks, and
the limited number of stocks in the
Canadian stock markets, it might have a
dramatic affect on your return.
The other problem that may cause
some discomfort, is the fact that when a
lot of the boomers retire, there may not
be enough younger people around to
take their place in the workforce. We are
already seeing it with the health care
workers, we've heard that we'll be short
teachers in several years, depending on
how many take the early retirement
plan. In the skilled trades sector, it is
said that we will only have 25 per cent
to 50 per cent of the trades people that
will be needed by the year 2009. As far
as agriculture goes, I have not heard
where we stand, all that I know is most
farmers do not retire, they just move
into a new field.
Being in rural Ontario, we'll be
competing with the big cities for our
electricians, carpenters, mechanics and
just about any other service we'll
require will possibly be short of people.
So what can we offer them to keep tis
serviced'? ThiS will be the big challenge
of the future.
So here's'to the future. Just watch the
boom doesn't get you.0
— Submitted by Paul Sachs, President
Sullivan Township Federation
GREY COUNTY FEDERATION OF
AGRICULTURE 54TH ANNUAL
PUBLIC SPEAKING COMPETITION
GCFA 54th Annual Public Speaking Competition
was held on March 2 at
Beaver Valley Public School, Thornbury
Congratulations to the winners:
JUNIOR - first, Rob Mackey, Holland Chatsworth,
"Being A Twin"; second, Kellie Nicholl, Derby
Central, "Dreaming"; third, Andrew Hughes,
James A. Magee, Hanover, "Hockey'.
SENIOR - first, Astrid -Maria Ciarallo, Meaford
Community, "Imagination"; second, Carmen
Dunlop, Beavercrest, Markdale, "Procrastination";
third, Verity Cotterell, Durham District Community,
"Angels".
GCFA would like to thank all the participants in
our Public Speaking Competition. All the speeches
at both the semi-finals and finals were well done,
both in content and presentation. Special thanks
to the teachers who assisted the students to
prepare for the event. We would also like to thank
the co-ordinators, judges, and timekeepers. It
would not be possible to have a successful
competition each year without everyone's
participation and co-operation.0
1