The Rural Voice, 1999-03, Page 49year pigs might even reach the $40 -
range in the U.S., he said.
In beef, currently 710,000 head of
cattle arc being slaughtered each
week in the U.S. but Corneil
expected that would slip in March to
635,000 head. As well, he said,
carcass weights are going down and
fewer cows arc expected in the
slaughter mix.
U.S. cattle prices should be in the
$60s range and might even touch
$70, Cornell predicted.
In corn, however he delivered the
news that "Things aren't good guys".
There have been three consecutive
years of building inventory, he said.
Following the second biggest crop on
record in the U.S. ending stocks are
up to 456 million bushels.
"We're sitting at five-year lows
(in prices)," he said. Despite the
wonderful years earlier in the '90s,
the 20 year history shows that prices
tend to top out at $3 US per bushel.
Soybean growers face a deadly
combination of the second biggest
soybean crop in U.S. history at a time
when South America is increasing
production. As well. declining hog
production and reduced exports to
China arc slowing demand.
The only hope for better crop
prices would be weather problems
associated with La Nina in major
growing areas, Corneil said. In the
meantime users of soybean meal are
looking at pretty cheap prices.
Corneil explained to producers
how they can help manage their risk
by purchasing options to either sell or
buy product. Historically, he said,
more farmers sell their product at the
bottom of the market than at the top,
because too many hold out trying to
hit a home run. "You always think
it's going to get better," he said. He
remindeu producers present that
"Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered."
Some pork farmers, he said, sold
futures last spring that locked in a
floor price at a level that would give
them a break-even or profit level.
Others didn't and paid the price when
pork prices plunged last fall.
Cornell championed options as a
way farmers could lock in a floor
price but still win if prices go higher.
With options, he said, you have to
pay a premium to guarantee the price
News
but if the price goes up you gain the
additional money less the cost of
buying the option. Similarly people
buying inputs can lock in a ceiling
price at minimal cost.
He compared the option to an
insurance policy, or in the case of
cattle, to veterinary bills. Just as a
farmer wouldn't feel $7 per animal
for vet bills was out of hand, so
guaranteeing a floor price at a cost of
$7 per animal was a good deal.
The ability to manage risk, said
George Arnold, the Royal Bank's
Senior Advisor on Agriculture and
Agri -Business, will become more
and more critical for successful
farming. "I think the industry has
changed so you have to use risk
management tools."
Also speaking at the meeting was
Ethan Kohn, Royal Bank economist
who predicted a slowing in world
economic growth to 1.5 to 2 per cent
in 1999 as problems in Asia, Russia
and Brazil drag down the economy.
Canada, however, should still have
positive growth of 2.3 per cent, he
predicted. A reduction in exports will
hurt corporate profits and high
consumer debt loads will hurt
consumer spending but creation of
450,000 new jobs last year after a
growth of 370,000 new jobs in 1997
will help.0
Huron Coalition
receives report
Six recommendations are included
in a report on water quality presented
to the Huron County Surface Water
Quality Coalition, February 16.
The report, assessing available
water quality data from all sources,
was prepared by Professor Douglas
Joy of the University of Guelph and
research assistant Shelly Bontc. It
suggests the re-establishment of the
provincial water quality monitoring
stations. Some have been restarted in
the Maitland Valley Conservation
Authority district but the report
suggests more for the Ausable
Bayfield watershed.
The Huron County Health Unit
should continue to monitor the
beaches and inland waterways, both
as a service to the bathers and to
observe bacteria counts at these sites.
Archiving reports would help
maintain consistency in long-term
reporting.
There should be improved data
collection for septic systems,
including age, location and type as
well as inspections and renewals to
monitor contamination.
Improved collection of farm
information such as the installation
of tile drainage, waste management,
fertilizer use and crop changes and
how they relate to water quality.
A study should be initiated to
target "hot" areas of pollution with
the aim of determining the sourcc of
the contamination. Finally, regular
reviews of the data should be
completed to watch for trends.
The coalition agreed to send these
recommendations, as well 'as those
suggested earlier by SOLVE, to the
co-ordinating committee who would
prioritize and send to the appropriate
committee for action.
The current situation for the
beaches indicates that Goderich and
Amberley exceed swimming
guidelines 50 per cent of the time.
Bayfield is near 50 per cent.
"Though the water quality has not
gotten worse over the eight or nine
years of data collection," Joy said, "it
has also not gotten any better.
Something needs to be done."
There have been changes in the
water quality of streams though.
There has been an improvement
with respect to phosphorous due to
soil erosion prevention methods and
the removal of the mineral at waste
water treatment plants, Joy noted.
However, nitrates and bacterial
counts arc getting marginally worse,
though Joy said the increase was
small.
When looking at comparative
water quality across the county, Joy
said the concentration of fecal
coliform is worse in the south, better
in the central and Howick arca while
it is the best in the mid -north and
east.
Joy pointed out that this was
concentration numbers and not total
counts. The north had higher total
counts but because of higher water
flows, the system was flushed more
frequently. Shore loading was lower
in the south.°
MARCI-11999 45