The Rural Voice, 1998-06, Page 19/
p
(ALmAR)
and wheat values staying strong relative
to corn. Feed wheat is trading for S173
to $174/mt while western barley is
selling for about $155, both higher than
corn prices.
Let's talk about some factors that
will make markets move one way or the
other this summer. The corn picture is
all negative except for the possibility of
drought and heat. Demand is not
particularly good with exports lagging
behind even the lowest USDA
prediction of 1.475 million bushels.
Theoretically, the 1998 crop could top
9.6 billion or the second highest in
history while at the same time the
demand side of the 1998/99 equation
seems to be too optimistic at 9.3 billion.
What can turn this around? Well,
there's nothing that can affect the old
crop scenario but the 1998/99 situation
can be affected by weather. The current
production is based on trend line yields
but a yield reduction of 10 bu/acre will
lower production by 750 million
bushels. However, demand is probably
set too high right now and should fade
unless exports really pick up.
With soybcans, the old crop scenario
remains rather positive. However, the
new crop situation is looking quite
negative with record production
projected this year at 28 billion bushels,
except, once again, for weather.
Although it's not obvious from price
action, many traders are very nervous
about the weather situation even at this
early date. Anyone who was trading in
1983 remembers the market traded
lower into July when heat and drought
suddenly became an issue. Within five
weeks, the market peaked. This year,
even though each six to 10 -day forecast
has rain and heat in it, traders are on
edge waiting for the terms "ridge" or
"dome" to surface. They are following
El Nino data for 1983 and comparing it
to 1998 data and taking note of the
similarities.
As I've stated before, producers
should not hold on to a large portion of
their crop waiting for a hot dry summer.
This is one year when options are worth
looking at as a way to participate in
price gains in the event of a drought
after you have cashed out your grain.
Just keep in mind that new crop will be
affected by weather more than old crop.
Stay tuned over the next eight to 10
weeks to weather developments and
we'll be able to answer some of today's
questions.0
Information supplied by Dave Gordon,
LAC, Inc., Ilyde Park, 519-473-9333.
00709 -
FARMING
IS A LOT OF WORK
Do you need a helping hand?
Students will work on short notice for:
an hour a day a week or more
CONTACT: HUMAN RESOURCE CEN1'RE FOR STUDENTS
GODERICH 524-2744 EXETER 235-1711
LISTOWEL 291-2922
Government of Canada Gouvernement du Canada
TOP DRY
HOW DOES THE
G. S. I. SYSTEM WORK?
1) Grain is loaded into the upper chamber
of the bin, and dried as a batch
2) When the grain is dry, the burner
automatically shuts off
3) The operator lowers the dump chutes
with a winch, and the grain falls to the
lower part of the bin for cooling/storage
4) The dump chutes are cranked closed
and another batch is loading into the
drying chamber
WHY IS A TOP DRY A BETTER INVESTMENT
THAN A STIRRING MACHINE?
1) LOWER OPERATING COSTS
' Uses much less fuel because it recycles cooling air through
the drying zone
' No gear boxes, motors, or bearings inside the bin
• 100% galvanized construction inside and outside
2) FASTER DRYING
* 2 to 3 times faster per horsepower than a stirring machine
because of lower grain depth (30")
FOR MORE INFORMATION OR A FREE ESTIMATE, CALL TODAY
GRAIN SYSTEMS LTD.
131 Thames Rd. W.
Exeter, Ontario NOM 1S3 (519)235-1919 / Fax: (519) 235-2562
JUNE 1998 15