The Rural Voice, 1998-05, Page 20(ALmAR)
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16 THE RURAL VOICE
Grain Markets
Pressure remains on
prices
By Dave Gordon
The USDA released their ideas of
prospective plantings and quarterly
grain stocks as of March 1, 1998 and
followed up with updates
supply/demand reports on March 9.
Even though corn acreage was
slightly below expectations, there was
nothing bullish in the rest of the
reports. Corn stocks showed a
reduction in usage as suspected and
the supply/demand report showed a
drop in both domestic feed and export
demand. Even though soybean
carryover was reduced by 20 million
bushels to 235 million bushels, the
record acreage anticipated for the year
dampened any thoughts of price
improvement.
On top of the U.S. reports, both the
South African and Argentinian corn
crops were increased significantly and
may grow even more by the time
harvest is completed. We didn't see
any increase in South American
soybean production, but don't be
surprised if the crop size is increased
in the next couple of months. The
bottom line is, the world has lots of
product and the only factor that will
impact the situation is a blip on the
production side.
CORN
Quarterly corn stocks were pegged
at 4.937 billion bushels, above any
trade guesses while acreage was
pegged at 80.8 million acres, near the
low end of guesses. This set up a
major move in the old/new crop
spreads as December futures gained a
quick 10 cents on May futures even
though both months lost ground. The
USDA supply/demand report did
nothing to stop the bleeding as old
crop carryover was increased 260
million bushels to 1.209 billion,
above expectations and coupled with