The Rural Voice, 1998-02, Page 41Meanwhile China's meat
production is soaring and it has about
10 times as many pigs as the U.S. It
is becoming a major market for
exports and the only hope for the
U.S. to regain some of its exports.
Despite this, China has shocked the
world by becoming a major grain
exporter, mainly to Korea and Japan,
which cut off those markets for North
American grain. Some of the Chinese
exports are because of poor
transportation infrastructure, Reesor
said. It's easier for China to export
grains from some parts of the country
than to deliver to other parts of China
that need the grain.
As a result of the current factors in
the market, there was the unusual
situation this year of new crop prices
peaking at the point they usually
decline: at harvest. But new crop
prices haven't declined as much as
expected, Reesor said because of
fears that the El Nino effect, which
has created the warm and dry winter
conditions in the northern U.S. states
and the Canadian prairies this winter,
might lead to cropping problems this
spring and summer.
In Ontario, corn supply is not
growing and with the Chatham
ethanol plant coming on stream, there
are more corn imports to Ontario
than usual. This is keeping the basis
price high.
Despite uninspiring prices "If
you're holding corn in storage don't
despair," Reesor cautioned. "It's
usual for corn prices to be flat in
January and February. Once spring
comes and problems (in planting)
happen there will be marketing
opportunities."
Compared to corn, the stocks -to -
use ratio in wheat is huge, nearly 25
per cent and going into the winter,
Kansas has the best looking winter
wheat crop in years. This is bad news
not only for Ontario wheat producers
but corn producers, Reesor said,
because when wheat prices dip low
enough, it becomes a competitor for
corn in feed rations.
In soybeans, the carryover is
much smaller, less than 10 per cent
of the stocks needed.
The rare condition has been
created where usage has been high in
both products generated from
News
soybean crushing: oil and soybean
meal. "Meal usage has been
extremely strong because of the huge
increase in swine and poultry,"
Reesor said.
Still the price outlook is not sunny
because the acres devoted to soybean
production in Brazil is expanding as
rivers are dredged opening up
transportation routes to more remote
parts of the country. Early estimates
say acreage is up seven per cern in
Brazil and El Nino has brought
plentiful rains and the crop is looking
very good. Those beans will hit the
world market in March. (Brazil is
now even with the U.S. as an
exporter of soybeans.)
In Ontario, soybeans are now the
number one crop, passing corn in
1993. Old crop prices have been
sliding but have been supported by
the low Canadian dollar. Crush of
soybeans has also increased as acres
have gone up.
On top of this, expect sagging
commodity prices in the spring
because exports have been hurt by
the financial troubles of Asian
customers. If nothing goes wrong
with U.S. crops, the price outlook is
not good. "Maybe you should nibble
at new crop contracts as protection,"
Reesor said. Still, he said, in historic
terms, prices are still good.0
Plant long season
soybeans and plant
early, advisor says
Plant the longest season soybean
variety you can reasonably grow and
plant it early, was the advice of Peter
Johnson, Soil and Crop Advisor had
for cash crop farmers attending the
Grey -Bruce Farmers' Week Crops
Day at Elmwood.
Soybeans have become Ontario's
number one crop by expanding
beyond the traditional growing arca
of the five most southerly counties.
But in non-traditional area, choosing
a variety is the number one decision
for soybean growers, he said. Yield
goes up in direct proportion to the
length of the growing period for the
variety. "You need to select varieties
at the top of the 118-120 days -to -
maturity yield chart," he said.
But its better for beans to face
cold weather at the beginning of their
growth than the end. If beans are
frozen out before harvest and there
are still immature beans, those beans
will not mature and the crop will be
unwelcome by the soybean crusher.
On the other hand, beans withstand
cold well early in their life. "Even if
the leaves are frozen off it will get
new growth," Johnson said. "The
plant is only dead if the stalk is
mushy below the cotyledons
(primary leaves). If you get frozen
out on June 10, you have to make a
dccision quickly."
But, he advised, "don't be afraid
to plant soybeans early. Plant beans
and corn together."
The determining factor is not the
calender but soil condition. "If the
soil condition on May 10 is right
(dry), plant even if it's cold. You
give up too much in yield going to
short season varieties in June." But,
he warned, make sure you have good
seed if you plant early and treat the
seeds for cold soil conditions.0
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LIMITED
r
A.
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Well -Packed Sacks
For more information contact:
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WOOL DEPOT
John Farrell
R.R. 2, Wingham, Ontario
Phone/Fax 519-357-1058
FEBRUARY 1998 37