The Rural Voice, 1998-02, Page 19Grain Markets
inevitable and if the Canadian dollar
does gain in the coming month, it
might be prudent to lock in some
new crop soy prices soon.
FEEDGRAINS
Feed grain prices have remained
strong relative to corn with western
barley selling for about $163 and
western feed wheat trading for about
$190 per mt. As you can sec, these
prices have not dropped with corn
prices. Ontario barley and mixed
grain are both trading for about S135
per mt depending on the lot size and
loading capabilities.
The USDA sure surprised most
traders and analysts with their
January reports in much the same
manner as last year. Corn prices
were slumping until the bulletin
report was issued and almost
everyone was bearish. Last year
when this happened, corn prices gain
60 cents, but on the strength of
soybeans. This year, however, the
news isn't as friendly for soybeans,
so corn prices will have to
strengthen on its own merit.
Domestic feed usage in the U.S. will
have to stay firm in order to meet the
USDA's projected carryover because
exports sure don't appear to be too
brisk. Weather problems (El Nifio)
in the coming spring or early
summer will be the only factor left to
force prices significantly higher as
corn and soybean stocks appear to be
sufficient, especially if South
America continues to have ideal
weather. Corn futures will likely
continue to trade in a new price
range for the next couple of months
($2.68 to $2.83) but soys could still
drop off another 10 to 15 cents and
hold if demand stays strong.
I have to admit that I had a rather
bearish attitude before the USDA
report and in fact said that I couldn't
see a report that would be friendly to
grain prices. How wrong I was and
producers can be just as wrong by
getting too bullish when markets
risc. The upshot is that all of us
should be a bit more moderate in our
thought process regarding markets
and view opportunities to buy or sell
profitably as just that — an
opportunity.0
Information supplied by Dave Gordon,
LAC, Inc., Hyde Park, 519-473-9333.
Dianne Murphy, C.F.P.
(519) 357-1362
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