The Rural Voice, 1998-01, Page 20STABLING MANUFACTURER
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R.R. 2 Kenilworth, ON 519-848-6537
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16 THE RURAL VOICE
Grain Markets
Falling dollar
affects basis levels
Now that harvest is virtually
complete in North America, reality
seems to be setting in. Futures
prices have slipped lower as the size
of both the corn and soybean crops
are confirmed, coupled with lower
corn exports and good weather in
South America. The spec funds that
have been long corn and soybean
futures have managed to exit their
positions without doing much
damage. They are now in a position
to move the market sharply one way
or the other.
The USDA updated the
supply/demand reports on
December 11 with very little
change, so we'll have to wait until
the January reports to get the final
production figures and we may see
a drop in projected corn exports at
that time.
The effect of currency
devaluation in the Pacific Rim is
just starting to be felt in North
America and in most importing
countries, corn and soybeans are too
expensive for the locals to import.
CORN
The USDA made only slight
changes to the supply/demand
report by reducing usage and
increasing carryover by 25 million
bushels. However, this was
expected. Their report in January
should contain more changes,
especially to the export picture.
Private traders think U.S. exports
could be as low as 1.75 billion
bushels with carryover in
September '98 approaching 1.2 or
1.3 billion bushels depending on
domestic consumption.
In Ontario, harvest is pretty well
complete and although the crop is