The Rural Voice, 1993-07, Page 21i
available in September. The only
possibility of seeing a change lies
with the export market. We need to
see some major exports, if supplies
are to be reduced significantly before
new crop, and even though there
have already been a number of cars
of Ontario corn shipped to the U.S.,
it hasn't made much of a dent in
total stocks.
I feel that basis levels will remain
flat throughout the summer given the
present available supplies. New
crop values should remain steady
until near harvest and there may not
be much of a premium for early
harvested corn.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures fell heavily in
late May and early June, but gained
about 20 cents back in one session
due to a Spark's report that two
million acres of soybeans in Iowa
and Minnesota may not get planted.
At the time of writing (June 17),
about 10 million acres of soybeans
were still to be planted, which
represents about 350 million bushels,
much more than the 200 million
carryover predicted by Spark's
Commodities for 1994. Going along
with the U.S. situation is a smaller
than expected soybean crop in
Argentina. As you can see, there are
reasons why soybean futures are
suddenly getting volatile. Added to
these supply side problems, there is
excellent demand for soybeans
worldwide.
In Ontario, crushers are importing
beans heavily to meet their needs
and we've seen good demand from
soybean roasters. Only a small
quantity of soybeans are left in
Ontario and basis will stay strong
until new crop starts to hit the
market. New crop basis levels will
continue to reflect the level of the
Canadian dollar and the value of the
soybean futures until harvest begins,
and if the crop is as large as
predicted, levels should drop
dramatically.
FEED GRAINS
Ontario feed grain prices are
absolutely terrible. Barley prices are
Grain Markets
pegged at $80/mt, but it's very
difficult to find a market. One buyer
told me he was offered barley at
$68/mt but was unable to find a user.
He found that most cattle feeders
preferred to use corn in their
finishing ration. A small amount
may move into the U.S., but there
seems to be a much larger supply
than can be absorbed by the U.S.
market. Mixed grain is priced at the
same level as barley, but there is
slightly better demand than for
barley. Ontario oats have dipped to
the $90 to $100/mt range.
Western grain prices have held
fairly steady although demand for
feed oats and feed barley is light.
Western barley is selling for about
$110/mt and is being used in place
of toxin laden Ontario barley.
Western oats are trading for about
$145 to $150/mt with the best
demand coming from heavy horse
oat users. There is still very good
demand for western feed wheat,
however, and prices are holding
between $118 and $122/mt. The
supply of feed wheat will certainly
be around for several months and, in
fact, feed mills are finding wheat so
nice to process that the price of corn
will have to be much more competi-
tive price wise than ever before.
With the warm weather of the
past few days, crops are beginning to
show good growth, and this has to
make producers feel good. At least,
the crop in Ontario is planted, unlike
parts of the U.S. In fact, there has
not been a year in recent memory
quite like 1993, and as a result we
have no similar price history to fall
back on. Many experts are trying to
build cases for either a bearish or a
bullish scenario. Our thoughts lean
towards the bullish side, at least for
the next month to six weeks. Only
time will tell.0
Information supplied by Dave
Gordon, LAC, Inc., Hyde Park, 519-
473-9333.
Dufferin Mutual
Insurance Company
Contact our Broker in your area
and ask for ... DUFFERIN MUTUAL
Atwood Cockwell Insurance Brokers Ltd. 519-356-2216
Collingwood ....... Culham Insurance Brokers Ltd. 705-445-6100
Howard Noble Insurance Ltd. 705-445-4738
Simpson & Company 705-445-3151
Dundalk Howard Noble Insurance Ltd. 519-923-2313
Durham Chapman, Graham & Lawrence Insurance 519-369-3131
Grand Valley Grand Valley Insurance Brokers 519-928-2851
Hanover Chapman, Graham & Lawrence Insurance 519-364-2790
Markdale . Tebbutt Insurance Brokers Ltd. 519-986-2167
Chapman, Graham & Lawrence Insurance 519-986-4351
Mea ford Georgian Bay Insurance Brokers Ltd. 519-538-2102
Owen Sound .... L.A. Chester Insurance Ltd. . 519-371-0232
Shelburne Crewson Insurance Brokers Ltd. 519-925-3145
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Thornbury Howard Noble Insurance Ltd. 519-599-3812
Walkerton Chapman, Graham & Lawrence Insurance 519-881-0611
Head Shelburne, Ontario
Office 110 Adelaide St., P.O. Box 117, LON 1S0
519-925-2026 1-800-265-9115 Fax 519-925-3357
1895 —100 years — 1995
JULY 1993 17