The Rural Voice, 1993-07, Page 14• Contact herbicide applicator
• More coverage with Tess
chemical
• Economical way to control
weeds growing above the
crop
• All makes & models in stock
PAUL VOGELS
R.R. #2, Kippen
Ontario, NOM 2E0
519-522-1030
"Our experience
assures lower cost
water wells"
92 YEARS' EXPERIENCE
Member of Canadian
and Ontario
Water Well Associations
• Farm
• Industrial
• Suburban
• Municipal
Licensed
by the Ministry
of the Environment
DAVIDSON
WELL DRILLING LTD.
WINGHAM
Serving Ontario Since 1900
519-357-1960 WINGHAM
519-886-2761 WATERLOO
10 THE RURAL VOICE
Robert Mercer
Take time to count your blessings
It is often difficult to see the "big
picture" when the day-to-day
pressures on the farm are so constant.
By the big picture I mean what is
happening in the
rest of the
economy, the
rest of this
global village,
that directly
affects our daily
lives and long
term future.
Is farming
where you want
to be 10 years
from now? Is it
where you
should be?
There are some
major structural
changes happening that should affect
the way you plan to do business.
Here's a little bit of that big picture,
but by no means the whole thing or
the most important. This comment is
presented solely as an introduction to
some of what the world is planning
for you.
One of the major political changes
has been the realization that govern-
ments cannot spend their way out of
trouble. Debt causes trouble, and
over -taxation is even more trouble. It
is likely that we will see continued
limits on the growth in government
spending for the next two to five
years. There may be actual reduct-
ions in government spending, but tax
rates will not go down. There will, in
fact, be prolonged fiscal contraction
and restraint on disposable income.
In other words, a lower standard of
living. We have been living beyond
our means, especially in the 1980s.
There are those who say there is
no way around this new reality, and
that does not make a robust economic
recovery driven by consumer confi-
dence at all likely. Strong growth in
the economy must come from
exports.
Because of government restraints
there will be less farm subsidy, less
support for research, less support for
services that commodity groups can
perform rather than the government
agencies.
In the near term it looks as if
inflation will be kept low, interest
rates (short term) will remain down,
land prices may only increase by one
to two per cent per year and any plan
based on capital appreciation due to
inflation will be doomed.
Trade agreements will be signed,
NAFTA, GATT, the FTA, because
exports will be the key to Canada's
growth (if any), and this will mean an
easing of restrictive trade policies
over time. Supply management will
change and marketing at the farm
level of any production will be more
important to profits than the
production techniques. The key will
be added values and the profits from
thinking globally, not locally.
Expect to see larger farms, use of
non-farm capital, greater emphasis on
water quality, land use, waste
disposal and chemical applications.
There will be increasing pressure
by third world countries to ship their
agricultural produce into Canada on
an open market. Their costs will be
far less than in North America as
imports will be seen as a better form
of world aid than monetary handouts.
So what does all this type of back-
ground mean to farming in Ontario?
Basically farming will become more
intense, more of a business than a
way of life and more stressful.
With low inflation and increasing
productivity real commodity prices
will continue to trend lower over
time, but the opportunities will be in
niche markets, in specialized
production for end-use contracts, and
production where land has natural
advantages. There will be less
government support, fewer full-time
farmers and off -farm income will
become a necessity for many rural
families. The current economic
turndown will be slow in reversing
the confidence of the consumers so
employment will remain repressed
with new jobs difficult to find.
Agriculture, however, should do
better than the old smoke stack
industrialized industries.0
Robert Mercer is editor of the
Broadwater Market Letter, a weekly
commodity and policy advisory letter
from Goodwood, Ontario LOC IAO.