The Rural Voice, 1992-05, Page 14POLYCALF HUTCHES
10 THE RURAL VOICE
KEEP AN EYE ON WEATHER
AROUND THE WORLD
Robert Mercer is editor of the
Broadwater Market Letter, a weekly
commodity and policy advisory letter
from Goodwood, Ontario LOC IAO.
The weather is always a hot topic
of conversation among farmers
because it directly affects what they
do, when they do it, and what rewards
they reap. This year farmers will have
to keep an eye on the weather well
beyond the back fence if they are to
keep abreast of trade, prices and the
state of the industry. This is not a nor-
mal year. Grain and oilseed supplies
are tight and weather patterns have
been especially abnormal in many
pans of the world.
In a nearly unprecedented move the
U.S. National Weather Service issued
a 90 -day forecast at the end of Febru-
ary calling for a 70 per cent chance of
dry spring weather. This includes part
of the Canadian prairies. The Service
usually only makes forecasts with a
chance of a particular weather pattern
as high as 60 per cent. The NWS said
"Weather patterns are beginning to
point to a dry spring and summer
period in major U.S. crop producing
states this year."
The El Nino system of warm
Pacific water currents should continue
to keep areas that need moisture the
driest. The National Weather Service
predicted a 57 per cent chance of
below normal precipitation for the
March/May period in the Dakotas and
the southern Canadian prairie provin-
ces, with a 70 per cent chance of above
normal temperatures.
The El Nino has resulted in a re-
cord warm winter for the U.S. and kept
the north -central U.S. and Canadian
prairies dry.
The early spring weather pattern
should be both warmer and drier than
usual west of the Mississippi River if
the high pressure ridge currently
locked over the far western states
begins to slide to the east, climatol-
ogist Cliff Harris said. "If the current
El Nino cycle continues to mature as
expected, the May 1/June 15 period
should be both wanner and drier than
normal across at least the western
growing areas of the corn and soybean
belt as well as the Great Plains wheat
areas.,,
This forecast was later updated by
the NWS but the general tone was still
for warmer -than -normal weather. The
forecast of March 30 said in part:
"There are at least 55 per cent odds for
above -normal temperatures in the U.S.
midwest and the entire western half of
the country except for Kansas, parts of
Colorado and New Mexico and
southern Texas. Chances for warmer -
than -normal weather rise to 65 per
cent or slightly higher from northern
Wisconsin west through North Dakota
and the eastern two-thirds of Montana,
as well as in northern California and
western Nevada."
If the U.S. and Canadian prairies
do suffer even a mild drought this
year, grain prices will become very
volatile. Drought has already occurred
in some places, at times associated
with the El Nino effect. First the
wheat crop in Australia was affected,
now South and central Africa and
areas of Spain and France.
But not all is lost. Spring cond-
itions in many states are excellent with
soil moisture adequate to surplus.
Manitoba is in excellent shape. Ontar-
io conditions have also beenfair with
seeding preparation getting off to an
early start. News from the former
Soviet Union indicates a crop better
than last year. Imports could fall.
If 1992 does follow the drought
pattern of 82/83 the U.S. corn yield
could drop to 81.1 bu/ac from the
trend line of close to 120 bu/ac, and in
Ontario the 82/83 year was 92 bu/ac,
whereas last year was 110.8 bu/ac.
It all makes for an interesting year
when weather bulletins will be more
important than bank statements. The
former will drive the latter.0
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10 THE RURAL VOICE
KEEP AN EYE ON WEATHER
AROUND THE WORLD
Robert Mercer is editor of the
Broadwater Market Letter, a weekly
commodity and policy advisory letter
from Goodwood, Ontario LOC IAO.
The weather is always a hot topic
of conversation among farmers
because it directly affects what they
do, when they do it, and what rewards
they reap. This year farmers will have
to keep an eye on the weather well
beyond the back fence if they are to
keep abreast of trade, prices and the
state of the industry. This is not a nor-
mal year. Grain and oilseed supplies
are tight and weather patterns have
been especially abnormal in many
pans of the world.
In a nearly unprecedented move the
U.S. National Weather Service issued
a 90 -day forecast at the end of Febru-
ary calling for a 70 per cent chance of
dry spring weather. This includes part
of the Canadian prairies. The Service
usually only makes forecasts with a
chance of a particular weather pattern
as high as 60 per cent. The NWS said
"Weather patterns are beginning to
point to a dry spring and summer
period in major U.S. crop producing
states this year."
The El Nino system of warm
Pacific water currents should continue
to keep areas that need moisture the
driest. The National Weather Service
predicted a 57 per cent chance of
below normal precipitation for the
March/May period in the Dakotas and
the southern Canadian prairie provin-
ces, with a 70 per cent chance of above
normal temperatures.
The El Nino has resulted in a re-
cord warm winter for the U.S. and kept
the north -central U.S. and Canadian
prairies dry.
The early spring weather pattern
should be both warmer and drier than
usual west of the Mississippi River if
the high pressure ridge currently
locked over the far western states
begins to slide to the east, climatol-
ogist Cliff Harris said. "If the current
El Nino cycle continues to mature as
expected, the May 1/June 15 period
should be both wanner and drier than
normal across at least the western
growing areas of the corn and soybean
belt as well as the Great Plains wheat
areas.,,
This forecast was later updated by
the NWS but the general tone was still
for warmer -than -normal weather. The
forecast of March 30 said in part:
"There are at least 55 per cent odds for
above -normal temperatures in the U.S.
midwest and the entire western half of
the country except for Kansas, parts of
Colorado and New Mexico and
southern Texas. Chances for warmer -
than -normal weather rise to 65 per
cent or slightly higher from northern
Wisconsin west through North Dakota
and the eastern two-thirds of Montana,
as well as in northern California and
western Nevada."
If the U.S. and Canadian prairies
do suffer even a mild drought this
year, grain prices will become very
volatile. Drought has already occurred
in some places, at times associated
with the El Nino effect. First the
wheat crop in Australia was affected,
now South and central Africa and
areas of Spain and France.
But not all is lost. Spring cond-
itions in many states are excellent with
soil moisture adequate to surplus.
Manitoba is in excellent shape. Ontar-
io conditions have also beenfair with
seeding preparation getting off to an
early start. News from the former
Soviet Union indicates a crop better
than last year. Imports could fall.
If 1992 does follow the drought
pattern of 82/83 the U.S. corn yield
could drop to 81.1 bu/ac from the
trend line of close to 120 bu/ac, and in
Ontario the 82/83 year was 92 bu/ac,
whereas last year was 110.8 bu/ac.
It all makes for an interesting year
when weather bulletins will be more
important than bank statements. The
former will drive the latter.0