The Rural Voice, 1991-12, Page 22C O.O
I YOUR OWN SPECIAL
• CHRISTMAS GIFT
STORES
m
Cash savings on many
in-store sale items
WINTER CASH SPECIALS
NOW IN EFFECT
Bagged and Bulk Fertilizer Seed grains
Cash discounts 1
Early delivery discounts -741
Watch for Customer Appreciation
Night • Dec. 5/91 at your Co-op Store,
LEi DANCE
flNDiNG
AND MAKE
GSD CHEER
FOR
CHRISTMAS
CUM
C
TEESWATER DISTRICT CO-OPERATIVE
Teeswater 519-392-6862
LUCKNOW DISTRICT CO-OPERATIVE
Lucknow 519-529-7953 Ripley 519-395-3654
1
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HELM WELDING LIMITED
LUCKNOW, ONTARIO, CANADA PHONE 519-529-7627
18 THE RURAL VOICE
GRAIN MARKETS
and China will be the exporters that make
up the added trade.
This projection of increased world
stocks may dampen enthusiasm in the
futures prices over the next weeks or even
months. But, in the long term, I still feel
that credit or aid packages will be issued
by Western countries to the USSR, and
world grain exports will pick back up.
With stocks vs. usage projected at 16.5 per
cent for 1992, the market will, at some
point, ration the available supplies, and
this will continue until a good 1992 crop is
assured.
Overall, I have tempered my thinking
somewhat on the com market in the face of
a larger world crop. However, I still think
higher prices are coming, although it may
take some time to develop. We should see
some quick short term strength that may
well level out through the winter months.
SOYBEANS
The soybean harvest started early and
ended early this year, and as was the case
with corn, yields were generally in the
areas north and east of London. We
estimate the Ontario crop to be 45 million
bushels, down from early projections, but
still near record size.
With the harvest period being so short,
space at country elevators was at a premi-
um, so they started to ship beans to make
room for corn. We did see a fair quantity
of soybeans exported, but because of the
shortened harvest, it didn't seem as if any
headway was being made. Because of
these exports and a very heavy crush, On-
tario shouldn't have much trouble using
the crop up. In fact, basis levels have
moved up by 10 to 15 cents per bushel,
indicating crushers need raw product, and
soybean basis was too low to attract any
beans. Basis levels range from five cents
under January futures to 15 cents over.
The USDA report increased the 1991
U.S. production to 1.962 billion bushels
for an average yield of 33.5 bu/acre but, at
the same time, lowered the projected 1992
carryover. Because of the heavy soybean
crush in the U.S. and the near term strong
demand for soymeal, USDA have changed
their outlook for usage during the coming
year. Whether or not the current demand
will continue is a point many traders are
questioning, and even if demand remains
strong, South America will have a large
supply available to ship during the March
to May 1992 period.
Ending stocks as a percentage of total
use is important in any commodity, but it
seems that soybeans can maintain a lower
relative stocks level than corn without
price increases. This is partly due to the
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