The Rural Voice, 1991-11, Page 48PERTH
County Pork Producers NEWSLETTER
Vince Hulshof, President
R. R. 1, Sebringville, NOK 1X0 393-5586
• The Rural Voice is provided to Perth
County Pork Producers by the PCPPA
Countervail Rate Changes
The U.S. Commerce Department
completed their review of period five.
As a result the countervail on live hogs
exported to the U.S. is increased from
the present 4.49 cents to 9.32 cents, or
about $21 per hog. The new rate became
effective following publication in the
U.S. Federal Register on Monday, Octo-
ber 7, 1991.
No provincial support for fed grains
The Board was shocked and dis-
mayed that support for farm fed grains
was left out of the provincial govern-
ment's emergency assistance package.
The Pork Board sent a sharply worded
letter to provincial agriculture minister
Elmer Buchanan strongly urging him to
include fed grains in the $35.5 million
program.
OPPMB Chairman Jim Goodhand
said "The decision to leave farm fed
grains out of the program is discrimina-
tory."
The combination of low hog prices
and unjust grain support programs is a
reason for the decline in Ontario's hog
production. The government's lack of
support is not only unjust, but very short
sighted. The traditional hog production
unit in Ontario is a mixed family farm,
and makes excellent environmental
sense. The board stressed that discrimi-
natory programs such as this will further
discourage mixed farms, and place even
more pressure on our soils.
OPPMB service fee to increase
Effective December 1, the service
fee will be increased from $2 to $2.25
per hog. Jiin Goodhand told councillors
attending the semi annual meeting that
"keeping board costs in line is an ongo-
ing and top priority for both directors
and staff. The choice faced by the board
was to either increase the service fee, or
reduce services. We have decided on a
combination of both. Some programs,
such as leadership training, and next
year's semi annual meeting, will be put
on hold. Funding for promotion and
production research will be- reduced,
44 THE RURAL VOICE
PORK NEWS AND NOTES
while other costs, nch as directors'
expenses, will be held to 1990 levels.
These changes will allow us to get
through a difficult year without a major
reduction in the services provided to
producers.
The decision to increase the fee to
$2.25 was made on the assumption that
hog volumes in 1992 will stabilize at this
year's level. If volumes continue to
decline, the board will consider down-
sizing the organization.
Farrowing intentions meaningless?
A learned treatise is produced occa-
sionally to verify something that has
been fairly evident all along. An ex-
ample is an article that appeared in the
August issue of The Journal of Agricul-
tural Economics entitled "Are Farrow-
ing Intentions Rational Forecasts?" The
author of the article is David E. Runkle,
senior economist in the research depart-
ment of the Federal Reserve Bank of
Minneapolis.
The answer to the question posed by
Runkle in the title of his article can be
summarized in one word: "No." He
concludes that pork producers "appear
to have few economic incentives to
report their farrowing intentions accu-
rately." He adds that "forecasts of actual
sow farrowings can be improved sig-
nificantly by discarding the assumption
that the aggregate sow -farrowing inten-
tions announcement is unbiased and
efficient."
Runkle stated, "Our own compari-
son of initial farrowing intentions with
subsequent change in actual hog
marketings indicates a significant error
factor. The data, over 49 quarters start-
ing in 1979, shows that marketings var-
ied from initial intention by more than
five per cern more than half the time.
The variation was as much as 23 per cent
(+ or -) 16 per cent of the time.0
BUS TRIP
Perth County Pork Pro-
ducers are organizing a
bus trip to the OPPMB of-
fice in Toronto. We will see
the tele -auction working,
tour the board office, and
discuss the county and
OPPMB roles.
A tentative second stop
is Knob Hill Farms, Cam-
bridge. The trip will take
place November 27, and is
open to any pork producer
in Perth. Ladies are more
than welcome. Phone
Vince Hulshof, 393-5586,
for registration and depar-
ture time.
Pork Products are available from:
Wayne Hartung 291-4038
Fred De Martines 393-6812
Carol Rock 345-2666
Alfred Young 348-9352
Dennis Zehr 595-4771
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