The Rural Voice, 1991-11, Page 20IS THERE A WORLD FOOD SHORTAGE?
DESPITE A GROWING WORLD POPULATION, THERE'S NO DEMAND
FOR CANADIAN GRAIN. ARE OUR FARMERS GOING BROKE TRYING
TO LIVE UP TO A FALSE ILLUSION THAT WE CAN FEED THE WORLD?
by A. Douglas Mutch
In the late 1700s, Thomas Robert
Malthus predicted that a food short
world faced mankind. Two hundred
years later, in the late 1900s, that pre-
diction has yet to be realized. Never-
theless, in the first half of the 1970s
that prediction was believed to have
come true, and policies were set in
place to stimulate global food pro-
duction.
Those food production stimulation
policies worked as intended, and some
of those policies remain in place to-
day. For example, the European Com-
munity's price support levels for grain
arc set significantly above world ex-
port prices. U.S. target prices for
grain are also significantly above
world levels. Both the E.C. and the
U.S. currently use export subsidies to
increase sales of thcir surplus internal
production.
Global food demand has not in-
creased as much as was projected in
the mid-1970s. Global food supply
increases, however, have exceeded
expectations. As a result, the quantity
of food offered into global markets
exceeds demand, and global price
levels are extremely depressed.
Where did Malthus go wrong?
Basically he grossly underestimated
the potential increases in food output
through increased yields, better
technology, mechanization, increased
feeding efficiencies, and many other
WORLD GRAIN ANO MEAT PRODUCTION
1967-100
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05095
factors. Global food output, in short,
could be increased much faster than
Malthus had predicted.
For example, global grain acreage
in 1990 is essentially at 1967 levels.
During that same period, global grain
output has increased by 70 per cent.
Global meat output is up 120 per cent.
A given acreage base is thus producing
70 per cent more grain. If that grain is
processed into meat, improved feeding
efficiencies mean that that acreage is
now producing more than twice as
much meat as was the case in 1967.
Continued advances in biotechnol-
ogy and in technological transfers will
mean that global grain yields will
continue to increase for the foresee-
able future. Although the full impact
of biotechnology may not be felt in the
immediate future, simply the transfer
of current technology will be sufficient
to continue the growth of major crop
yields at about historical rates of
growth.
This will result in a continued
excess capacity for global grain
production. The outlook for the years
ahead is for market conditions similar
to those that were experienced in the
1950s and 1960s. Weak global import
demand will once again impose a mar-
ket constraint on global grain export-
ing nations.
The depressed grain price outlook
for the years ahead indicates that many
grain producers, where possible and
profitable, will attempt to market their
grain only after it has been passed
through animals (or other alternatives).
A very weak grain market price out-
look will also have a dampening im-
pact on both grain production trends
and grain production stimulation
policies in marginal areas. Grain
sellers will find, both internationally
and domestically, that it will be dif-
ficult to market their crops at a
profitable price.
For most importing countries, the
drive for national self-sufficiency will
continue. With only a few exceptions,
only those countries with a significant
trade surplus of non-agricultural
products can afford to be a net import-
er of food. Most other nations will
attempt to implement policies targeted
for self-sufficiency, with the domestic
market protected as necessary.
In a world of ample grain supplies,
continued advances in biotechnology
and increasing technological transfers
will mean that global meat supplies
will continue to increase for the fore-
seeable future. Although the full im-
pact of biotechnology will not be felt
in the immediate future, simply the
transfer of current technology and
breeding stock will be sufficient to
increase global feed efficiencies on an
ongoing basis. This will result in
excess capacity for global meat pro-
duction. Weak global import demand
will impose a market constraint on
meat exporting nations.
The quantity of grain fed is on the
increase. This is also intensifying the
competition between beef, pork, and
poultry. In the period under review,
poultry to date has been the clear
winner, increasing market share versus
both pork and beef. This will very
likely continue in the immediate
future, and could continue for an
extended period.
Global trade in red meat and
poultry has been a very small propor-
tion of total world output. This is
WORLD MEAT PRODUCTION
1967-100
PORK
'EONS
16 THE RURAL VOICE