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14 THE RURAL VOICE
WEATHER PATTERNS AND
THE EL NINO EFFECT
Robert Mercer is editor of the
Broadwater Market Letter, a weekly
commodity and policy advisory letter
from Goodwood, Ontario LOC IAO.
Weather is the single most discus-
sed topic between people — farmers
in particular. This fall may see new
emphasis on weather patterns should
early warnings about the recurrence of
the El Nino effect turn out to be true.
The most serious El Nino occurred
in 1982-83, destroying Peru's fishmeal
industry and causing massive rainfall
on the U.S. west coast. Because this
weather occurrence is global in nature,
it affects Canada because of its devas-
tating consequences elsewhere. For
one, it would likely cause drought in
Australia and parts of Brazil. It is not
expected, however, to fully develop
until the end of 1991.
The El Nino is basically a change
in the warm water currents in the
Pacific Ocean. (El Nino means "The
Child" — an allusion in Spanish to the
Christ Child because South Americans
often feel the change to a warm ocean
current around Christmas time.)
It happens about every four to five
years, and some people think it is set
in motion by large volumes of volcan-
ic dust. In the spring of 1982, the
Mexican volcano El Chicon belched
forth immense volumes of dust while
this year, it has been Mount Pinatubo
in the Philippines.
The change seems to start with a
swing in high pressure all over the Pa-
cific Ocean which then sees the Trade
Winds falter. The equatorial current
in the Pacific is reversed and sea tem-
peratures change by as much as 14°F.
The warm waters and warm winds
blowing across the Pacific to South
America clash with the cold Humboldt
current flowing up the coast of South
America from the Antarctic. The
warm waters displace cold water fish
shoals and the fishing industry, based
on anchovy, is lost. Prior to 1982/83,
Peru had 1,500 modem fishing vessels
hauling in 14 million tonnes of ancho-
vetas. Now that fleet is lost. When -
the fishmeal industry closed down, the
price of soybean meal rose dramatic-
ally, and Brazil expanded its acreage
of oilseeds to take up the slack.
Now, once again weathermen be-
lieve the devastating El Nino current,
which brought floods to Peru and Ec-
uador and droughts to South East Asia
eight years ago, is about to reappear in
the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Scien-
tists say rising water temperatures off
the South American coast and changes
in rainfall patterns in Pacific basin
countries indicate the freak climatic
event is setting in again. "There are
signs the El Nino phenomenon could
be returning," research oceanographer
David Enfield of the U.S. National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra-
tion (NOAA) told a meeting of weath-
er experts in Santiago in mid-July.
"But we have no solid confirmation
yet," he said. "There are a lot of signs
out there and if this trend continues
there will be very little doubt i,n three
or four months' time," said Eugene
Rasmussen, a founder of NOAA's
Climate Analysis Center, at the same
convention in Santiago.
Indonesia has been dry and rainfall
in India must be watched closely, as
drought is possible, says Rasmussen.
"If it does develop, the time to watch
out for is the end of this year and the
first four months of next year."
Lost in much of the weather news
has been the bitterly cold winter in
New Zealand — the coldest in 16
years. Weathermen are linking this
phenomenon to a shift in atmospheric
pressure over Indonesia and the east -
em Pacific. The same initial patterns
that trigger the start of the El Nino.
If the weather pattern is confirmed,
droughts and floods could greatly dis-
rupt the global food system. Prices
would almost certainly rise, in some
cases doubling from the recent lows.
There's now more than one reason
to keep a watchful eye out for "The
Child" at Christmas this year.0