The Rural Voice, 1990-12, Page 21GRAIN MARKETS
this year. The slow crush right now is
due to lack of soyoil sales from
Ontario, but I'm sure this will be
corrected soon.
In the latest USDA report, produc-
tion for 1990 was increased to over
1.9 billion bushels. This is not a
record crop but it certainly has
allowed the speculators to shake the
market over the past week. November
futures have dropped to the mid $5.64/
bu. Is this a blow off in the market? I
don't know, but with prices this low,
Brazil and Argentina will quite likely
curtail plantings which have already
begun. Many traders are looking for
much stronger markets in 1991 and
1992 and, seeing how far the market
has dropped now, a move in futures
prices back to $6.50 would be fairly
impressive.
FEED GRAINS
Feed grains, especially barley,
have strengthened in price over the
past month due to little producer
selling. In fact, Ontario barley is
trading for $105-$110/mt while corn is
selling for $100/mt. There seems to
be a delicate balance between usage of
barley on one hand and the available
supply on the other. At present, the
small quantity being offered is
sufficient to meet the basic needs of
feed processors with the result being
relatively strong prices. Here is an
opportunity for barley producers to
sell their barley and purchase corn as a
replacement.
These stronger barley prices will
probably spill over into mixed grain
prices somewhat, but keep in mind
that there appears to be greater stocks
of mixed grain and barley to come on
the market than we've seen for a
couple of years.
Good quality bright oats can be
traded in the $100 to $105 range for
milling or for export. But they must
be clean, heavy and bright to com-
mand these prices and you will need to
store them for several weeks yet.
The markets of the past month
have provided some very depressed
and depressing action. Producers tend
to be eternal optimists and always
look to better prices, better weather,
and better crops and right now your
mettle is being tested. But keep the
big picture in focus and remember that
world production and usage levels are
more important in the long-term
health of the markets than simply the
Ontario, Canadian, or American
situations. I try to be optimistic about
markets and sometimes it affects my
thinking too much. We must try to
avoid the pitfalls of buying or selling
based on a whim rather than on facts
and figures and one of those facts is
that futures prices tend to spend more
time dropping than rising. Timing is
of utmost importance and right now I
feel it's time to make maximum use of
the interest free advance. This will
give you time to reformulate a market-
ing plan and will also allow time for
the markets to regroup and once again
provide some windows of opportunity
to sell into.0
Information supplied by Dave Gordon,
LAC, Inc., Hyde Park, 519-473-9333.
Dave really tied one on last night
Too bad his friends tagged along
Great strides have been made in alerting Canadians to the terrifying consequences of drunk driving.
As concerned corporate citizens, The Rural Voice Magazine and The Co-operators would like to remind you
that drinking and driving can bring some great friendships to a premature end.
Please don't drink and drive and please don't ride with someone who does.
May we extend best wishes for a safe and happy
holiday season and a successful New Year.
The Co-operators Insurance Services
and The Rural Voice Magazine.
DECEMBER 1990 17