The Rural Voice, 2006-02, Page 19herd size has grown in that same
period from 50 to 72 cows. If you
project the same 300 -herd annual loss
over the next 10 years there will be
1970 herds in 2015, averaging 162
cows per herd, he said. If you use the
average percentage decline of six per
cent, there will be 3,100 herds
averaging 105 cows per herd.
Rosenburg predicted the reality
would be somewhere in between —
say 2,400 herds of 150 cows per
herd. There will be more herds in the
200-500 cow range, though he
doesn't see the likelihood of
many 1,000 cow herds.
He definitely doesn't foresee
Ontario with farms like the
large Indiana operation he
showed slides of with nine barns
1500 by 96 feet each housing 3,000
cows milked in a 72 -stall rotary
parlour by five employees. That
operation has its own anaerobic
digester to create electricity
(something Rodenburg thinks will be
much more plentiful in Ontario's
future as energy costs rise), plus a
cheese plant and a visitors' centre.
Despite the size of this operation it
billed itself as "Still just an ordinary
family farm".
There is a new barn being built in
Ontario that will house 700 cows
with plans to expand to 1,600, but the
cost of quota will likely prevent
many 1000 -plus herds, Rodenburg
said. The $30 million investment
needed for quota for 1,000 cows is
beyond most family's resources and
he can see outside investors
comfortable getting involved in the
industry.
So who will be farming after the
fall -out? Those who work smarter
and measure their labour input,
Rodenburg predicted. "Time is
money. Family labour efficiency
drives the size of your operation.
Inefficiency limits your
productivity."
Your time is the biggest cost on
your farm, higher than feed or vet
bills, he said. According to 2004
Ontario Dairy Farm Accounting
Project data, the average cost of
home-grown feed was $1,378 per
cow, veterinary and breedings costs
were $195 per cow, other direct costs
were $561 per cow and overhead and
utilities were $921 per cow. But the
report showed an average of 109.32
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FEBRUARY 2006 15