The Rural Voice, 2005-01, Page 24Looking ahead
The past gear has been so difficult, is
there hope that 2005 mag offer
happier times for Ontario farmers?
By Bonnie Gropp and Keith Roulston
n the tradition of farmers always
being optimistic about next year,
there is optimism amid the
discouragement that characterized
2004 for farmers in most
commodities.
The ongoing BSE crisis (in beef
and sheep in particular but also
affecting dairy), the shock over the
collapse of prices for corn and
soybeans, the worry about the U.S.
anti-dumping trade action against
Canadian live pig imports all have
cast a pall of gloom over farm
country but hope persists. In fact the
very fact grain prices are so low
offers relief for feedlot owners while
offering real hope for better profits
for pork farmers.
In fact pork is the one area of
optimism despite the uncertainty over
the anti-dumping action and the
problems caused by the rise in the
Canadian dollar.
Prices are strong for this time of
the year on both sides of the border,
says John Bancroft, swine grower -
finisher specialist with OMAF in
Clinton and Stratford and editor of
the Pork News and Views newsletter.
Demand for pork in the U.S. is
high, both for domestic and export
needs and since the Canadian price is
20 THE RURAL VOICE
set on the U.S. price, Canadian prices
have also held strong.
The price collapse for corn and
soybeans, prime components in pig
feed, has created more demand for
pigs. Specialized feeders see an
opportunity for better profits with
lower feed costs while farmers who
grow their own feed are looking for
ways to add profit by feeding their
grains through livestock.
This time last year the pork
industry on both sides of the border
was looking ahead at high prices for
feed that reached record levels by
mid -year before the collapse.
The demand for Ontario early
weaned and feeder pigs south of the
border continues strong despite the
concern over the anti-dumping levies.
It's costing Canadian producers a lot
of money both to pay the duties and
to finance the fight against the U.S.
trade action, Bancroft pointed out.
The increasing value of the
Canadian dollar has hit producers and
processors in Canada hard, both
because they receive fewer Canadian
dollars for each foreign sale and
because Canadian•pork prices are
higher in other currencies, making
our pork less competitive.
The mood of the Ontario industry
in the past two years has also been
affected by what Bancroft
diplomatically calls the
"restructuring" of the Ontario
industry — known to others as the
bankruptcies of giants Acre T and
Premium Pork. There has been pain
for contractors and suppliers caused
by these collapses and the effects will
linger into 2005, Bancroft expects.
Still the picture is relatively
optimistic, he says with pork
seemingly in the middle of its three
or four year cycle.
Would that things were so bright
for beef farmers. But even here some
people find optimism as Dennis
Martin, a feedlot specialist with
OMAF did when he provided an
overview of the beef industry to close
to 100 people attended Beef
Symposium 2004, December 2.
Exports, he pointed out, are up
30 per cent in 2004 over 2003
with 41 countries now
accepting Canadian beef. "We are
moving in the right direction."
Regarding imports, he explained
that Canada does have an obligation
with the World Trade Organization
and roughly 76,000 tons of beef are
imported annually. However, the
import quotas have been reduced