The Rural Voice, 2004-05, Page 45AgriTech
through research and technology and
health and food safety issues.
Other committees include apple and
fruit; crop, plant protection and
environment; finance and marketing;
human resources, potatoes, and
vegetables.
The Canadian Produce Marketing
Association, www.cpma.ca/en/
cpmc.html, provides networking
opportunities and a link to regional
organizations. The Ontario -based
association at www.opma-assn.com/,
offers information for everyone from
fresh -cut operators to growers,
shippers, wholesalers and retailers.
For another means of connecting
with other horticulturalists, check out
www.icangarden.com. The articles
may be of interest and the forum
allows visitors to ask questions for
which they have been unable to find
a solution.
For the true enthusiast, there is a
calendar of events listing events
around the world as well as at home.
You can register for a trip to London,
England, for the famous Chelsea
Flower Show or plan to visit
Amherstburg, Ontario, for the garden
tour and fair, May 29-30. If you love
orchids, consider booking a trek to
the Durham Regional Orchid Society
Auction, May 16.
Local horticulturalists involved in
their community societies can check
out the Ontario Horticultural
Association's website at
www.interlog.com/—onthort for
information on the group's 98th
annual convention to be held in
London, August 13-15. It sounds like
a wonderful event with a wide
spectrum of speakers and bus tours
around the area.
If you are not current a member of
your local horticultural society, this
would be the perfect time to get
involved.
...
For anyone who had trouble
linking to the Rural Living Canada
website from last month's column,
try rurallivingcanada.4t.com or
members.attcanada.ca/—kenruss/
cyhome.htm.
Contact me at jlbecker@wightman.ca
or through The Rural Voice office,
with feedback or topic suggestions.0
Grain Markets
It's been a hectic month
Dave Gordon
is a
commodities
specialist
with LAC,
Inc., Hyde
Park, 519-
473-9333.
By Dave Gordon
April 26. 2004.
A lot has happened in the last
month that has greatly affected
prices. On March 31, the USDA
released the planting intentions and
quarterly stocks reports, followed on
April 8 with the monthly
supply/demand report. Grain prices
were impacted immediately after both
report days but in opposite directions.
With world demand outstripping
production over the past two years in
all grains, the need for acres and ideal
weather is paramount in 2004. It
appears that Australia and Europe
will see wheat production increase
over a droughty 2003 but there is
little room for production problems in
any grain in 2004. Oilseed usage is
still growing and the question is will
there be adequate supplies to meet
this demand.
CORN:
It was expected that the USDA
planting intentions for corn would
come in at slightly over 80 million
acres but according to their survey,
only 79 million acres will be planted
this year. It was projected that the
U.S. would need up to 81 million
acres of corn to meet the growing
domestic demand so the job of the
futures market was to attract more
corn acres. From March 31 to April
8, corn futures gained about $.40/bu
before breaking back. Part of this
break, however, came as planters hit
the fields unusually early and
typically, an early start to corn
planting leads to more acres without
too much regard for price. It appears
right now that corn prices may have
peaked until we see how the U.S.
weather plays out this summer.
The supply/demand report
projected a smaller carryover in
September due to higher industrial
use and there are still a few months to
go before export shipments are tallied
for the year. By extrapolating
shipments to date, there is a
possibility that U.S. corn exports
could nudge a little higher.
In Ontario, the corn market is very
quiet with basis levels trading well
below import values. The feed trade
has done a good job of blending the
lighter test weight corn with some
better quality, but there is a thought
that we may be running low on good
quality corn to blend and may need to
reach into Michigan for some
supplies. 1 do not think this will
happen in the near term but may be a
reality by late summer.
New crop basis at $.80/bu over
December futures is relatively good
and now we will have to see the final
Ontario acreage and what the
Canadian dollar does over the next
few months. The dollar is weak
relative to the past few weeks and
could easily rebound which would
put some pressure on basis.
SOYBEANS:
The USDA planting intentions
report put soybean acreage at 75.4
million acres or a full two million
acres above last year. As a result,
soybean futures dropped sharply
before moving higher on the coattails
of corn. Prices gained until the
supply/demand report came out on
April 8, which i.n some people's
minds showed enough soybeans to
get U.S. processors through until new
crop, even though the carryover was
lowered to 115 million bushels.
About this time, it was also
announced that some east coast users
had purchased South American soy
meal for delivery this summer.
With corn planting starting so
early and the assumption that corn
acres will increase as a result, it may
be tough to get too many more acres
of soybeans unless spring wheat acres
get cut. We will certainly have a
better handle on the situation in a
couple of months.
The Ontario situation has not
changed with old crop soys trading at
import prices. There is not too much
MAY 2004 41