The Rural Voice, 2003-11, Page 8CANADIAN
CO-OPERATIVE
WOOL GROWERS
LIMITED
AP AM: 4b4 -
Now Available
WOOL ADVANCE PAYMENTS
Skirted Fleeces
Well -Packed Sacks
For more information contact:
WINGHAM
WOOL DEPOT
John Farrell
R.R. 2, Wingham, Ontario
Phone/Fax 519-357-1058
4 THE RURAL VOICE
Keith Roulston
Let's not have a sequel to the '80s
Keith
Roulston is
editor and
publisher of
The Rural
Voice. He
Imes near
Blyth, ON.
History does repea itself but it
tends to come back dressed a little
differently each time around.
This summer the combination of
the crisis in the cattle industry from
vanished export markets after the
BSE discovery in Alberta and some
distrurbing news about climbing farm
debt had me thinking back to the
terrible days of the early 1980s when
high farm debts, soaring interest rates
and depressed cattle and crop prices
created a crisis in rural Canada.
Like many people back then I
watched the anguish as longstanding
farm families around me got into
financial trouble but I was a little
closer than many bystanders. As part
of the research for a play Anne
Chislett and I wrote called Another
Season's Promise, I talked to some of
these families and heard their stories
first hand. I can still feel the pain that
came across in the interviews.
So I was disturbed this summer to
read an article by Barry Wilson that
showed Canadian farm debt had
ballooned to $44 billion at the end of
2002, 87 per cent higher than nine
years earlier. For more than a decade
following the 1980s crisis farm debt
had stayed relatively stable at about
$20-$23 billion.
It recalls the period from 1977 to
1983 when farmers heeded the call
from government advisors and
bankers to expand and specialize,
even if it meant borrowing money to
do so. The problem was, of course,
that inflationary times led to soaring
interest rates. When interest rates
topped 20 per cent, farmers found the
debt they'd thought they could ser-
vice, and were assured they could by
the "experts", suddenly was eating up
all their income. Then drops in both
cattle and cash crop prices made the
problem worse by reducing income.
The different picture for farm debt
this time is that interest rates and
inflation have been stable at a rate
that's a fraction of what the country
faced in the early 1980s. There seems
little danger of the kind of soaring
rates that turned the world upside-
down for borrowers two decades ago.
What's new this time, however, is
the soaring Canadian dollar which
has effectively cut 15 per cent off the
price of those products that are
exported from Canada (beef
producers could only wish to have
exports). Like interest rates 20 years
ago, this is an important and
uncontrollable factor for farmers who
think they'll be able to handle a
certain proportion of debt.
And of course also uncontrollable
are external forces like trade issues.
from disease like BSE to U.S.
domestic politics which can overnight
throw up barriers at the border,
crushing prices. Whether it's overt
trade issues like tariffs on wheat
exports or more subtle efforts like
country of origin labelling, the ability
to carry large amounts of debt can
change instantly by the decision of
someone beyond our borders.
The other interesting development
in the latest figures is that more than
half the debt is non -mortgage
obligations such as line -of -credit
borrowing. "In many ways, this
illustrates the problem in agriculture,
that farmers are borrowing against
their equity just to pay the bills —
just to put groceries on the table" said
Bob Friesen, president of the
Canadian Federation of Agriculture.
Government and lenders insist the
debt isn't a problem, that it just
indicates farmers are confident and
investing.
There's no doubt they are — that
a younger generation has put the
trauma of the 1980s behind them and
grasped the mantra of expansion and
specialization. This can be good
because you don't want to live in fear
of the past forever. But here's hoping
that circumstances don't conspire to
make today's confident borrowers
suffer like their predecessors. I don't
want to write a sequel to Another
Season's Promise. 0
J.R. FARMS
EAST FRIESIAN
DAIRY SHEEP
4
o
yam, 7y ,
,} t Ali �t
o- Breeding Stock and FI crosses
> Milk production records
available
> Closed Flock, Maedi -Visna
OPP - negative
> Economically priced
BILL AND LAURA MCKAY
RR 2 Tavistock, ON
NOB 2R0
(519) 462-1446
e-mail: jrdairysheep@execulink.com
CANADIAN
CO-OPERATIVE
WOOL GROWERS
LIMITED
AP AM: 4b4 -
Now Available
WOOL ADVANCE PAYMENTS
Skirted Fleeces
Well -Packed Sacks
For more information contact:
WINGHAM
WOOL DEPOT
John Farrell
R.R. 2, Wingham, Ontario
Phone/Fax 519-357-1058
4 THE RURAL VOICE
Keith Roulston
Let's not have a sequel to the '80s
Keith
Roulston is
editor and
publisher of
The Rural
Voice. He
Imes near
Blyth, ON.
History does repea itself but it
tends to come back dressed a little
differently each time around.
This summer the combination of
the crisis in the cattle industry from
vanished export markets after the
BSE discovery in Alberta and some
distrurbing news about climbing farm
debt had me thinking back to the
terrible days of the early 1980s when
high farm debts, soaring interest rates
and depressed cattle and crop prices
created a crisis in rural Canada.
Like many people back then I
watched the anguish as longstanding
farm families around me got into
financial trouble but I was a little
closer than many bystanders. As part
of the research for a play Anne
Chislett and I wrote called Another
Season's Promise, I talked to some of
these families and heard their stories
first hand. I can still feel the pain that
came across in the interviews.
So I was disturbed this summer to
read an article by Barry Wilson that
showed Canadian farm debt had
ballooned to $44 billion at the end of
2002, 87 per cent higher than nine
years earlier. For more than a decade
following the 1980s crisis farm debt
had stayed relatively stable at about
$20-$23 billion.
It recalls the period from 1977 to
1983 when farmers heeded the call
from government advisors and
bankers to expand and specialize,
even if it meant borrowing money to
do so. The problem was, of course,
that inflationary times led to soaring
interest rates. When interest rates
topped 20 per cent, farmers found the
debt they'd thought they could ser-
vice, and were assured they could by
the "experts", suddenly was eating up
all their income. Then drops in both
cattle and cash crop prices made the
problem worse by reducing income.
The different picture for farm debt
this time is that interest rates and
inflation have been stable at a rate
that's a fraction of what the country
faced in the early 1980s. There seems
little danger of the kind of soaring
rates that turned the world upside-
down for borrowers two decades ago.
What's new this time, however, is
the soaring Canadian dollar which
has effectively cut 15 per cent off the
price of those products that are
exported from Canada (beef
producers could only wish to have
exports). Like interest rates 20 years
ago, this is an important and
uncontrollable factor for farmers who
think they'll be able to handle a
certain proportion of debt.
And of course also uncontrollable
are external forces like trade issues.
from disease like BSE to U.S.
domestic politics which can overnight
throw up barriers at the border,
crushing prices. Whether it's overt
trade issues like tariffs on wheat
exports or more subtle efforts like
country of origin labelling, the ability
to carry large amounts of debt can
change instantly by the decision of
someone beyond our borders.
The other interesting development
in the latest figures is that more than
half the debt is non -mortgage
obligations such as line -of -credit
borrowing. "In many ways, this
illustrates the problem in agriculture,
that farmers are borrowing against
their equity just to pay the bills —
just to put groceries on the table" said
Bob Friesen, president of the
Canadian Federation of Agriculture.
Government and lenders insist the
debt isn't a problem, that it just
indicates farmers are confident and
investing.
There's no doubt they are — that
a younger generation has put the
trauma of the 1980s behind them and
grasped the mantra of expansion and
specialization. This can be good
because you don't want to live in fear
of the past forever. But here's hoping
that circumstances don't conspire to
make today's confident borrowers
suffer like their predecessors. I don't
want to write a sequel to Another
Season's Promise. 0