The Rural Voice, 2003-02, Page 23Cal
Whewell:
Make a
plan and
stick to it.
It's likely that U.S. soybean
carryout will be even lower than
predicted, Whewell said. "Throw in a
little weather problem in South
America and we see $7 soybeans.
We don't need to have a problem, we
just have to think there's a problem."
The best guess is that bean
acreage in the U.S. will go down this
year and even if yields return to
normal the carryout will go down.
"There's absolutely no room for
error."
Wheat also has one of the tightest
carryouts in years, he said, just one-
third of what it was in 1999-2000.
"The U.S. is working real hard at not
growing wheat," Whewell said,
having lost 15 million acres of wheat
production. Not only was acreage
down, but it didn't rain in Kansas,
one of the areas that did have wheat.
At the same time there were
drought problems in two other major
producing areas, Canada and
Australia.
But countries like Australia and
Canada with state marketing
agencies have a goal of selling
the crop while the U.S. market was
looking for price and carried the crop
as inventory. "We're hedgers,"
Whewell said. As a result places like
Ukraine sold their wheat while the
U.S. held onto its crop.
At the same time the U.S.
producers, for the first time in years,
are making decisions on price not
government programs. "Price is a
wonderful thing," Whewell said. "It
always gets the job done."
The market's job now will be to
buy wheat as cheaply as possible, he
said.
"Winter wheat acreage in the U.S.
is expected to be up two to three
million acres", he said.
"Be aware of new crop wheat
opportunities this winter," he
advised.0
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FEBRUARY 2003 19