The Rural Voice, 2002-07, Page 46Grain Markets
U.S.D.A. cones up with surprises
Dave Gordon
is a
commodities
specialist
with LAC,
Inc., Hyde
Park, 519-
473-9333.
By Dave Gordon
June 21, 2002
The USDA sure can come up with
the unexpected!
In what was thought to be a simple
updated supply/demand report on
June 12, die USDA reduced the U.S.
corn acres and yields and increased
soybean acres. Most analysts thought
they would wait until June 28 to issue
acreage figures.
The corn market did gain $.08 bu.,
but warmer, drier weather has
tempered the gains and the soybean
market has struggled to hold steady.
The market to watch right now is
probably wheat. Wheat harvest is
underway in Kansas and although
quality is excellent, yields are
disappointing. Hopefully, higher
wheat prices will also reflect on corn
and soybean prices.
CORN:
The USDA did not change 2002
carryover but did reduce corn
planting by one million acres and
reduced yield by 2.0 bu/acre which
resulted in the 2003 carryover being
lowered by 260 million bushels.
The market responded with an
$.08/bu pop in new crop prices before
settling back on the perception of
ideal weather conditions. Some of the
private analysts think acreage will be
lowered again which will put a good
base under prices. Throw in some hot
weather and watch for possible
fireworks.
Basis levels in the U.S. are
historically very strong with demand
starting to come from the export
market. In the USDA report, corn
ATTENTION MOCO, SWATHER & COMBINE OWNERS
SVO4
EasyCut
Sickle Bar System
EG. KIT PRICES
9 FT. $710.00
12 FT. $875.00
18 FT $1195.00
HARVEST FASTER, soybeans,
small grains and hay crops with
the cutting system that never
needs adjustment and lasts twice
as long as the competition...the
SCH EasyCut cutter bar. Altemating up and down installation of
knife sections (with 2 cutting edges on the guards instead of
one) result in easier cutting, less breakage and superior
performance. Guards and knife sections are completely heat-
treated, not just the edges, for extra strength and durability.
• Solve Your Cutting problems • Put On An Easy Cut No Plugging
• Non Stop Cutting In Wet Grass • Bolted Sections • Quick Section Replacement Without Pulling Knife
• No Shims • No Hold Downs • No Adjustments
Stocking O.E.M. Quality Forged Steel Guards,
Disc Bine Blades, Rake & Tedder Teeth
NH Haybine (Standard)
NH Haybine (Doublehard)
JD Combine (200/900 Series)
CIH Combine (1010/1020)
ACG, MF & Hart Carter
215 ARS S9.80
215 ARSDH S11.40
240 ARS S8.85
370 ARS $10.80
231 RS $9.85
rf ft tiff
The Poly People
Gorden CIH bars &
cover plates
Kuchar JD combine
parts
For more information or a dealer near you call...
19 N4W 3G8
A200o T(519) 291-4205
Fax: (519)291-5215
www.argis2000.on.ca
R.R. N1, Hwy. 86 Listowel, Ontario, Canada
42 THE RURAL VOICE
stocks in China were lowered by 10
million tonnes, but who really
knows? It seems that Chinese
officials do not know what their
actual stock numbers are, thus
making China a wild card in the
export market.
In Ontario, old crop basis levels
remain very strong and it seems that
new crop basis is beginning to show
some strength. Usage in Ontario is
very high, therefore basis levels
should remain firm. Current on-farm
bids range from $1.30 to $1.35 over
September 2002 futures.
SOYBEANS:
The USDA report on June 12
lowered the 2002 soybean carryover
once again but did raise the 2003
projections. This increase in 2003
was based on an acreage increase of
500,000 acres coupled with a lower
carry -in from 2002. Some analysts
think that soybean acreage will
eventually be increased once again
which should not hurt the
supply/demand too much. We are
already hearing reports of aphids
showing up from Michigan to
Missouri, so it is time for the
ladybugs to get munching.
Since the report, November
futures have moved very little, but
nearby futures have had some
volatility. Basis levels in the U.S. are
very strong with demand coming
from both the domestic and export
markets. Processors in Ontario are
still importing soybeans to cover their
needs, which is well reflected in the
local basis.
It still appears that Ontario
soybean acres will be down from last
year even though wet weather
prevented all of the corn acres from
getting planted. The wettest area in
Ontario is north and east of Toronto.
Spring wheat and edible beans have
also cut into soybean acres. New crop
basis levels are holding steady well
above typical harvest numbers.
Private analysts are coming out
with their estimates of planted acres
as I attempt to write this report and
there is quite a difference of opinion
amongst the experts. USDA ,will
release their best guess of planted