The Rural Voice, 2000-02, Page 37Global warming may
mean drier weather
Campbell says
Weatherman Jay Campbell joked
he doesn't forecast beyond five days
but he told farmers attending crops
day at the Grey -Bruce Farmers'
Week that continued warming could
change farming patterns in Ontario.
Central and northern Ontario
could reap the greatest benefit from
continued warming, Campbell, a
meteorologist with The New PL in
London told farmers gathered in
Elmwood. The range in temperatures
between north and south would
narrow, allowing longer growing
seasons in northern areas. Barley and
corn yields in northern areas could
increase by up to 20 per cent while
soybeans could increase seven -10 per
cent.
Southern areas could suffer from a
lack of moisture. Levels of the Great
Lakes have been dropping which
reduces the amount of moisture in the
air which can fall as rain in areas to
the lee of the lakes. Many areas in
southern Ontario have suffered
drought in the past few years.
But a researcher at York
University is now beginning to study
a phenomenon of weather bands that
Campbell said he first started
noticing 18 years ago. There seem to
be bands, about 10-15 km wide,
extending in from Lake Huron that
get more moisture than surrounding
countryside. One of these seems to be
about along the former Highway 86,
he said.
The average daily mean
temperature has risen only slightly
from 1896 to 1998,.Campbell said,
but a small amount of change in
average temperature can make a Targe
difference in consequences. For
instance in 1991, when a Philippine
volcano erupted, the result was a
1992 summer in Ontario that was
only one degree celsius, on average,
cooler than normal. "It doesn't seem
like much but it was a huge amount."
The result was 120 per cent of
. normal rainfall, a cold wet spring
planting season and a shortened
growing season that cost an
News
estimated $250-$350 million.
The potential for continued
warming of the atmosphere through
the enhanced greenhouse effect of
too much carbon dioxide and
methane and other "greenhouse"
gases in the atmosphere snowballs
with each bit of warming, Campbell
said. Most of the world's methane,
for instance, is frozen into the arctic
tundra, but if the tundra warms it
may be released, compounding
global warming. The McKenzie
River valley is the place on earth that
has experienced the most warming
and some buildings, built on the
permafrost, are having to be moved
because the tundra is thawing, he
said.
Warming will also increase
melting of the polar ice cap,
increasing levels of the oceans. One
scientific model predicts that by
2020, Prince Edward Island will be a
sand bar, Campbell said.
Such long-term warming trends
don't take into account possible
volcanic eruptions that could cool the
earth on a short term basis or, most
cataclysmic, the collision of a comet
with the earth. One such collision is
believed to have taken place in the
Yucatan Peninsula of Central
America 65 millions of years ago,
sending a shockwave that killed
every living thing as far away as the
Rocky Mountains and stirring up so
much dust the weather was changed
for the next 10 years and dinosaurs
became extinct.
In the short term, our weather is
under the influence of La Nifia, the
cooling pattern in the South Pacific
that follows El Nifio. With La Nifia,
the jet stream splits in half and our
weather flip-flops between being
warmer than normal or colder,
depending on which part of the jet
stream is affecting us. These short
cooling and warming periods will
likely 'prevent an accumulation of
snow in southern Ontario this winter,
Campbell said. There will likely be
about average precipitation but it
may come in both rain and snow.
There will likely be an early start
to spring but it likely will be wet, he
said. This could be good for farmers
if the moisture comes in early spring
before they're ready to plant but
could be bad if it comes later and
delays planting.
During the summer there will
likely be close to normal
precipitation this year but the long
term outlook is for drier summers in
the future, he said.
The effect of La Nina in the U.S.
midwest may he cool wet weather
that could delay planting, Campbell
said.0
Buyers too
comfortable for
prices to improve
It takes buyers panicking at the
prospect of limited supplies to get
good prices for farm commodities
and there's so much supply around
that there's not much hope for
improved prices this year, Colin
Reesor, OMAFRA Commodity
Marketing Program Lead told
farmers at the Grey -Bruce Farmers'
Week Crops Day, January 7.
Reesor went down the
commodities one by one and the
story was always the same — too
much surplus crop in storage to raise
prices.
In corn, for instance, there will be
22 per cent of annual needs still in
storage when the crop year ends.
"Having a fifth of their needs in the
cupboard makes buyers
comfortable," Reesor said. To make
prices rise, 10 per cent of this year's
crop has to disappear through
weather problems or some other
cause.
If there's a glimmer of hope it's
that the United States Department of
Agriculture may report a greater
increase in usage of corn than
expected, he said. The second bit of
good news for corn could come with
the planting intentions report though
it could be bad for soybean prices.
"I'm expecting that soybeans will
steal land from corn," Reesor said. .
The U.S. farm program's support
level for soybeans is $5.26 (U.S.)
making it very attractive, and beans
are cheaper to plant and less
vulnerable to weather. "If the U.S.
midwest has a cold, backward spring
(as meteorologist Jay Campbell had
FEBRUARY 2000 33