The Rural Voice, 2000-01, Page 14Robert Mercer
Trends to plan careers around
Here we are at the start of a new
century with no more ambition in our
year-end resolutions for some of us.
than to plan to quit smoking because
it is something we have direct control
over. Changing the world is a little bit
more difficult.
It is, however, worth thinking
about our attitudes concerning the
future of the world. even if our
individual strengths and abilities lack
influence at the United Nations. What
are some of those trends that could
impact life on the farm or in the rural
communities?
Some of the more obvious
publicized long-term trends are those
connected to global warming which
we are told will be advantageous to
farming on the prairies due to longer
growing seasons and more moisture.
Carbon dioxide levels will only
diminish if gas prices double or if
fuel alternatives are found that are
both economic and adaptable to
transportation uses.
In the years ahead fresh water
shortages will plague certain areas of
the planet; China, Asia. India and
even the U.S.
Water wars will
have the potential
to explode into
armed conflict
when verbal
conflict fails to
resolve issues.
The trend to
globalization of
trade, power and
culture will
continue as
corporations span
the planet. The
world's 100
largest companies
already sell more into the world
export market that the 120 poorest
countries, out of a list of 200.
At the lower end of the economic
scale it is expected that the Third
World will cease to have any political
Individuals
now richer
than countries
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10 THE RURAL VOICE
entity, yet in contrast it has been said
that CNN (controlled by one man) is
by influence, the sixth member of the
UN Security Council. It would seem
that the ideals of liberty and equality,
so vocalized by the U.S., have been
lost under the mad rush of capitalism
and the greed to accumulate wealth.
For the majority of the world poverty
is the rule. Decent living standards
are the exception. This disparity is
expected to continue as the gap
between rich and poor widens. For
instance, the 225 largest personal
fortunes exceed 1,000 billion dollars
in total. Individuals are now richer
than whole countries.
For farmers the outlook for
population and income have always
been expressed as positive for the
demand for food. It is, if all were
fed according to need, not economic
ability. However, lately the UN has
reduced its population outlook due to
lower birth rates in both developed
and undeveloped countries. It is
estimated that the world's population
could stabilize by the year 2040 at
7.5 billion. Already 61 countries have
birth rates below replacement levels.
With no real growth in population,
and the economic systems of the
western world built on debt and
growth may no longer be sustainable.
Not good news for farmers who look
to increased demand to help lift
commodity prices.
On the world political map
China is the big unknown. It has
one-fifth of the world's population,
is fast running out of water, farmland
and investment flows. It has the
world's largest army (not the best)
and it is made up of ethnic groups
very much like the former USSR.
The potential for China to implode
like the Soviet Union is real and
growing..
Finally in this short list of trends,
the new wealth of the world will be it
brains, not raw materials, for those
with know-how, not muscles, for
those who apply research and for
those with the ability to innovate.0
Robert Mercer was editor of the
Broadwater Market Letter and a farm
commentator in Ontario for 25 years.