The Rural Voice, 2001-11, Page 34NOVEMBER SALES
AT KEADY LIVESTOCK
Tuesdays to Dec. 18 @ 10:00 a.m.
1000 - 1200 local calves and stocker
cattle
Friday, Nov. 2 @ 10:00 a.m.
1000 - 1200 vaccinated presorted
Charolais and Simmental calves selling
ONS
Wednesday, Nov. 7 @ 7:00 p.m.
250 Black heifers bred Blk. & Red
Limo. due March/April 2002
Friday, Nov. 9 @10:00 a.m.
1000 - 1500 Yearling Steers and
Heifers selling ONS
Friday, Nov. 16 @ 10:00 a.m.
1000 vaccinated local calves,
preweaned or right off cow, selling
owner lots - NOT presort
Friday, Nov. 23 @ 7:00 p.m.
Bred heifer and cow sale
RR 4, Tara, ON \1111 2\O
519-934-2339
LESLIE HAWKEN
& SON
Custom Manufacturing
LIVESTOCK & FARM EQUIPMENT
• Big Bale Racks
• Cattle Panels
• Headgates & Chutes
• Portable Loading Chutes
• Gate -Mounted Grain Feeders
• Feed Panels
• Self Locking Feed Mangers
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Jim Hawken
RR #3 Markdale 519-986-2507
32 THE RURAL VOICE
Grain Markets
USDA dramatically
increases yield
estimate
By Dave Gordon
Well. the USDA surprised
everyone with the October 12, 2001
report! Normally not known for
making big changes all in one report,
they increased corn production by
almost 200 million bushels over their
September 2001 estimate and took
soybean production to 2.9 billion
• bushels. USDA's estimates were well
above any guesses by analysts. Of
course along with increased
production came increased carryovers
and the result was lower future prices
immediately after the report.
CORN:
Reports of corn yields in the U.S.
so far appear to be generally better
than expected, but most analysts took
this into consideration in their
projections. However, the USDA
increased yield by almost three
bushels per acre. This increase in
production was offset somewhat by
an increase in usage leaving the
projected carryover at less than 1.5
billion bushels (a drop of 480 million
bushels from this past year). This fact
should keep the futures market from
making new lows although any
upside potential could be limited
depending on the amount of producer
selling in the coming months.
In Ontario, corn harvest has been
slow with the frequent rains and
although we have seen yields ranging
from 30 bu/acre to 200 bu/acre, I
think many producers are fairly
happy with the early yields. In fact, I
would not be surprised to see Ontario
production come in close to 195
million bushels which would be
about 20 million more than I
estimated in September 2001. The
quality so far has been excellent
overall and the heavier test weight
will add to production.
As of today (October 18, 2001),
there is still a strong spot market for
corn for immediate shipment. The
general new crop basis is also still
very strong, but I do expect it to
soften for a short while if we ever see
harvest pressure. By the time you
read this, we should be well into
harvest and have a better idea of
where basis is headed. Since the
Ontario basis is above import levels,
the upside potential is very limited,
so producers should take a serious
look at selling some corn right off the
combine. If the U.S corn producers
are not selling, an opportunity will be
provided to Ontario producers to get
some marketing done.
SOYS:
The USDA raised soybean yields
by one bu/acre for total production of
more than 2.9 billion bushels.
Coupled with this increase was the
forecast of bigger South American
soybean production. Some analysts
simply do not buy the U.S.
production number given some poor
yields in Ohio, Michigan and parts of
Illinois. However, this data will keep
the futures markets from going
anywhere until harvest is completed.
One significant factor right now is the
fact that the U.S. producer is taking
his LDP for soybeans and selling the
soys because they were burned last
year by holding into the new year.
In Ontario, harvest is probably 2/3
complete and it looks like we will
have the poorest yield in years -
possibly around 20 bu/acre. The
quality of Ontario soybeans is
generally poor with small and
damaged beans for the most part.
Because of this extremely small crop,
basis levels are very strong, as
Ontario buyers have had to reach into
the U.S. for trainloads of soys to
cover their positions. I expect basis
levels to remain at import levels in
the coming months - possibly even
until next summer.
One problem that 1 see on the
horizon is the lack of good quality
seed for spring planting. Soybean