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34 THE RURAL VOICE
NEWS
PORK CYCLE
ON THE SWING
All the conditions for record
high hog prices were already pre-
sent when the nuclear accident
happened at Chernobyl, said
Thomas Smith, chairman of the
Ontario Pork Producers
Marketing Board, to OPPMB
delegates at their semi-annual
meeting last month.
The disaster hastened price in-
creases that were impending
because of reduced supplies in all
of North America, the fall of the
Canadian dollar against the
Japanese yen, and increased pro-
motion efforts by the North
American pork industry.
Smith warned, however, that
"This is not a time for unbridled
optimism ... There are already
signs that the cycle is beginning to
reverse itself." He cited cheap sub-
sidized feed grain in the U.S. and
increased efficiency on both sides
of the border as reasons for the
reverse.
Smith told delegates that they,
as farm leaders, should advise their
fellow producers "to prepare for
any periods of lower prices." The
board has already advised banks
and the Farm Credit Corporation
(FCC) to curb any urge they may
have to lend funds for expansion
of hog production.
The Ontario government's
recently announced Ontario Pork
Industry Incentive Program
(OPIIP), he noted, was developed
together with all sectors of the in-
dustry on the initiative of the
board. But the incentive, he said,
will not be to produce more but to
produce more efficiently.
Smith did say, however, that
Quebec producers are preparing a
sales system similar to Ontario's.
If put into place, buyers from both
provinces will have equal access to
each other's market, meaning a
broader market base for Ontario
hogs and consequently higher
prices.
Smith also noted that Canadian
producers may benefit from
flatness in the American industry.
"The Americans feel that there is
virtually no increase in hog pro-
duction in the U.S."
The National Pork Producers
Council (NPPC) recently reported
that American lending institutions
"absolutely turn thumbs down on