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The Rural Voice, 1986-06, Page 53Where Hopper Goes the Water Flows. Call Collect Neil 527-1737 James 527-0775 Durl 527-0828 W.D. HOPPER & SONS WATER WELL DRILLING R.R. #2 Seaforth Since 1915 • Canadian Liquid Air Welding & Cutting Equipment • Miller Welders • Canadian Liquid Air Wires & Electrodes • Victor Welding & Cutting Equipment • Safety Equipment FOR WEEKLY DEPENDABLE DELIVERY CALL Durham Hardware & Equipment Limited 519.369-3546 409 Saddler St. W., Durham, Ont. NOG 1R0 a CANADIAN LIQUID AIR DISTRIBUTOR 52 THE RURAL VOICE NEWS Chernobyl — no long-term effect The meltdown of the reactor at Chernobyl has definitely con- taminated some areas and some agricultural products. Aside from the area immediately surrounding the plant plus some land im- mediately downstream, little long term impacts are likely. In all other areas the dispersion of the radioac- tive material has been sufficient that only minor, short term effects are expected. For example, any livestock that have ingested contaminated food need only to be held back for a short period. The contamination will pass through the system and will eventually be excreted within days. The one major exception to this is dairy, as the radioactive con- tamination would pass into the milk. As with meat animals, the contamination is passed through the animal in a very short period of time. Cows subsequently fed non - contaminated feed would shortly begin to produce non - contaminated milk. Animals in a covered confinement operation would not have been affected. For contaminated land root crops are obviously ruled out as long as the contamination remains. However strains of wheat and barley do exist that could be grown on this land. The roots would be unacceptable for any food use, but the grain would be acceptable for livestock feed. Thus except for the immediate vicinity of Chernobyl, virtually no agricultural land will be forced out of production. If there was a major impact on Soviet agricultural output as a result of Chernobyl, world agricultural trade levels would rise from current projections but the price outlook would not change significantly. Global granaries are overflowing and world meat markets are also heavily oversup- plied. Large new purchases by the Soviets would simply reduce the surplus. This change alone would not be enough to eliminate the surplus. For example, if Soviet grain im- ports were to increase by 20 -million tonnes — a worst-case estimate — then their imports in 1986-87 would only rise up to their import level of 1984-85. As Soviet grain import capacity is likely not considerably above 55 million ton- nes, their total imports in the year ahead would have trouble rising sharply above that level. In the United States alone, the feed grain carryout at the end of the 1985-86 crop year will be in excess of 100 million tonnes. These surplus stocks would easily fill any con- ceivable Soviet needs many times over. In the process of cutting dairy output, both the United States and the European Community have raised beef output. The EC surplus beef supplies weighed heavily on markets in 1985 and continue to do so. The current U.S. whole herd dairy buyout program has been severely demoralizing the red meat market. If the Soviets wished to import additional meat, they will quickly find many, many sellers who are most anxious to fill their needs. Although the Chernobyl melt- down has been very dramatic, it will likely have a negligible impact on global grain markets. We are into the major growing season in the Northern Hemisphere and crop conditions will be the primary market mover. A drought in the U.S. corn belt or in the Soviet Union would have a market impact many times greater than Cher- nobyl. II.Livestock Feed Board of Canada Major Grain stocks increase Farm stocks of the seven major Canadian grains, except rye and durum wheat, have increased substantially from year-earlier levels. Farm stocks of wheat totall- ed 10.0 million metric tonnes, up 32 per cent from March 31, 1985. Western farm stocks of all wheat are up 32 per cent while durum stocks are down 13 per cent. The hard red spring wheat remaining in Prairie producers' storage is estimated to grade 22 per cent No. 1 and 24 per cent No. 2, compared to 81 per cent and 10 per cent respectively a year earlier. Cana- dian farm stocks of corn and barley are up 20 per cent and 36 per cent over last year.. Q Livestock Feed Board of Canada