The Rural Voice, 1986-06, Page 53Where Hopper
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52 THE RURAL VOICE
NEWS
Chernobyl — no long-term effect
The meltdown of the reactor at
Chernobyl has definitely con-
taminated some areas and some
agricultural products. Aside from
the area immediately surrounding
the plant plus some land im-
mediately downstream, little long
term impacts are likely. In all other
areas the dispersion of the radioac-
tive material has been sufficient
that only minor, short term effects
are expected.
For example, any livestock that
have ingested contaminated food
need only to be held back for a
short period. The contamination
will pass through the system and
will eventually be excreted within
days. The one major exception to
this is dairy, as the radioactive con-
tamination would pass into the
milk. As with meat animals, the
contamination is passed through
the animal in a very short period of
time. Cows subsequently fed non -
contaminated feed would shortly
begin to produce non -
contaminated milk. Animals in a
covered confinement operation
would not have been affected.
For contaminated land root
crops are obviously ruled out as
long as the contamination remains.
However strains of wheat and
barley do exist that could be grown
on this land. The roots would be
unacceptable for any food use, but
the grain would be acceptable for
livestock feed. Thus except for the
immediate vicinity of Chernobyl,
virtually no agricultural land will
be forced out of production.
If there was a major impact on
Soviet agricultural output as a
result of Chernobyl, world
agricultural trade levels would rise
from current projections but the
price outlook would not change
significantly. Global granaries are
overflowing and world meat
markets are also heavily oversup-
plied. Large new purchases by the
Soviets would simply reduce the
surplus. This change alone would
not be enough to eliminate the
surplus.
For example, if Soviet grain im-
ports were to increase by
20 -million tonnes — a worst-case
estimate — then their imports in
1986-87 would only rise up to their
import level of 1984-85. As Soviet
grain import capacity is likely not
considerably above 55 million ton-
nes, their total imports in the year
ahead would have trouble rising
sharply above that level. In the
United States alone, the feed grain
carryout at the end of the 1985-86
crop year will be in excess of 100
million tonnes. These surplus
stocks would easily fill any con-
ceivable Soviet needs many times
over.
In the process of cutting dairy
output, both the United States and
the European Community have
raised beef output. The EC surplus
beef supplies weighed heavily on
markets in 1985 and continue to do
so. The current U.S. whole herd
dairy buyout program has been
severely demoralizing the red meat
market. If the Soviets wished to
import additional meat, they will
quickly find many, many sellers
who are most anxious to fill their
needs.
Although the Chernobyl melt-
down has been very dramatic, it
will likely have a negligible impact
on global grain markets. We are
into the major growing season in
the Northern Hemisphere and crop
conditions will be the primary
market mover. A drought in the
U.S. corn belt or in the Soviet
Union would have a market impact
many times greater than Cher-
nobyl. II.Livestock Feed Board
of Canada
Major Grain
stocks increase
Farm stocks of the seven major
Canadian grains, except rye and
durum wheat, have increased
substantially from year-earlier
levels. Farm stocks of wheat totall-
ed 10.0 million metric tonnes, up
32 per cent from March 31, 1985.
Western farm stocks of all wheat
are up 32 per cent while durum
stocks are down 13 per cent. The
hard red spring wheat remaining in
Prairie producers' storage is
estimated to grade 22 per cent No.
1 and 24 per cent No. 2, compared
to 81 per cent and 10 per cent
respectively a year earlier. Cana-
dian farm stocks of corn and
barley are up 20 per cent and 36
per cent over last year.. Q
Livestock Feed Board
of Canada