The Rural Voice, 1983-11, Page 4THE GREY -BRUCE
CANADA FARM
LABOUR POOL
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Division of
PARRISH & HEIMBECKER LTD.
FARM MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Prepared by John DePutter on Oct.
12/83.
CATTLE: MOST ANALYSTS
STILL BULLISH. Karen Curry,
Analyst for Heinold Commodities, is
predicting a spring peak of $70 for
U.S. choice steers; $75 possibly. Joe
Kropf of LBAS, a Kansas advisory
service, is a little less optimistic, but
still figures on the high $60's in the se-
cond quarter of '84. Dr. Ed
Yewbachek of Texas A&M University
sees moderate supplies ahead, with
prices in the mid to upper $60's for
most of 1984. These forecasts com-
pare with current prices around
$60-61. If true, they mean higher On-
tario prices ahead.
USDA QUARTERLY PIG
REPORT: NO SURPRISES. Total
hogs and pigs on U.S. farms on Sept.
1st were up 10 per cent from last year,
at 45,880,000 head, said USDA in a
Sept. 20 report. It pegged market
hogs up eleven per cent and breeding
inventory up five per cent. June to
August farrowings in the ten major
states surveyed were up nine per cent.
Farmers said they intended to farrow
four per cent more during Sept. to
Nov. than the same period a year ago.
They expected to reduce farrowings
for the upcoming Dec. to Feb./84
period by one per cent. In all, the
report indicated that huge liquidation
was not taking place during summer,
but moderate cutbacks were. Even
though the breeding herd is up from
last year, it's very low by historical
standards. The 31/2 year cycle bottom
is probably being put in.
USDA CONFIRMS CROP
DAMAGE. When U.S. farmers took
combines to fields this fall, they
found yields even worse than ex-
pected. One Illinois grower said he
had to drive his 8 -row about 11 miles
to get one hopper load of beans.
USDA confirmed the damage in a
report October 12. Officials
estimated corn yields at 82.9 bu/acre,
for a crop of 4.26 billion bushels;
beans at an average of 24.7 bu/acre
for total production of 1.517. These
estimates were down from previous
guesses and way below last year.
THAT DOESN'T MEAN BE A
RAGING BULL. Corn and soya
futures still haven't taken out
PG. 2 THE RURAL VOICE, NOVEMBER 1983
September highs, and charts portray
a bearish tinge. It's hoped most
farmers used the August -September
and early October period to price at
least a portion of production. As one
analyst said, "if farmers do not freely
make market decisions when prices
are good, they will be forced to make
market decisions when prices are
poor."
NO U.S. FEEDGRAIN PROGRAM
FOR '84: U.S. Agriculture Secretary
John Block has announced that
there'll be no PIK next year; only a
meagre 10 per cent acreage set-aside.
Experts say farmers will have no in-
centive to reduce production. They
just might plant corn from fence row
to fence row. As for wheat, there is a
reduction deal but it's unclear as to
market impact yet.
IN CANADIAN PRODUCTION
NEWS, the Ontario corn crop should
be higher than previously thought, at
168 million bu., according to the
Min. of Ag. & Food. Canadian wheat
is pegged at 26,582,000 metric tons by
Statscan; down marginally from last
year; Canadian barley production
should be 10,512,000...down from
over 14 million. Rapeseed is up to
2,676,000. A Cargill analyst, Paul
Erickson, said in early October that
farmers can expect strong oilseed and
barley prices until early next year. At
that time, he's afraid of big oilseed
production news from Brazil and a
boost in grain growth in Argentina
and Australia.
U.S. SENATORS PASSED CON-
TROVERSIAL DAIRY LEGISLA-
TION IN OCTOBER. It involves
paying farmers to reduce milk
marketings by 10 per cent over 15
months. Impact: U.S. dairy over-
supplies will be gradually reduced, a
positive thing for world dairy
markets. Impact for beef market:
Somewhere from 500,000 to a million
or more dairy cows could be culled,
adding to beef supplies. Longterm:
With the beef cow herd in North
America already low relative to the
consuming population, and the dairy
cow factory about to be cut, we could
be short on cows by early '85.
FERTILIZER COSTS WILL PRO-
BABLY INCREASE BY 10-15 PER
CENT IN 1984. That was the opinion
of Keith McCleary, of United Co-
operatives of Ontario in a recent
speech on input costs. A recent
newsletter from the Cargill company
also termed the price outlook
"bullish".