The Rural Voice, 1983-01, Page 46SUPEP PECEIP 1901
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PG. 46 THE RURAL VOICE, JANUARY 1983
ONE MAN'S OPINION
THE HINGE
IN THE ECONOMY
by Adrian Vos
This is the first issue of the new year, and my wish to you is for
a happy 1983.
When I listen to these economists who try to see the future,
there is a slight majority who are optimistic this year will show a
turning away from the steady slide in pro-
sperity we have experienced since the
middle seventies. There is some faint
hope,demand for manufactured products
will rise and. as more money circulates,
more food will be bought. This demand in
its turn should then increase prices.
We all hope that these seers will be cor-
rect. but there is another school of
thought which predicts we will slide into a
full-fledged depression, in which case we
would slowly slide backwards for another 1r
ten years.
I don't know what 1983 will bring for farmers. As usual there are
so many variables. There are so many unexplained happenings.
For instance, the Australian wheat crop and the India wheat crop
are reportedly disasters. Why then are grain prices not rising?
Were the supplies in storage so much higher than reported?
Much of the predictions are also based on wishful thinking. The
Russia -haters have told us that the Russian population is rather
restless because of the line-ups for meat in the stores and the
pressure would force their government to buy feed grain from the
world supplier and thus drive grain prices up.
But they underestimate the patriotism of the Russian people.
These people also know the world economy is in a mess and they
are more willing to suffer on behalf of their country than do many
trade unionists here in Canada.
After having listed all the things I don't know, I have some
definite opinions on others. More cheap money for farm pur-
chases is not the answer. As soon as such money is available, the
bidding for land will increase and the advantage wiped out. The
winner will be the speculator and not the beginning farmer.
The European Economic Community (EEC) has the correct ap-
proach, however much it may hurt us. They recognize that
agriculture is the most important hinge in any economy. The old
cliche that, 'as agriculture goes so goes the economy', is true and
tried. It is clearly demonstrated today. If only our economists
would admit it, the assistance from government would be turned
to helping agriculture survive and expand. To do so will require
price assistance. This is best done through price stabilization, or,
as in the EEC, through agricultural subsidies for both production
and export.
It is not the EEC who is wrong, it is our own shortsighted socie-
ty, which refuses to see the chain reaction of falling farm in-
comes.
Most provinces see agriculture needs assistance and have im-
plemented programs to do so. Regrettably, these programs are in-
strumental in pitting farmers of one province against farmers in
others. It is clearly the job of the federal government to implement
uniform programs which will aid farmers in world markets and so
maintain the industry until the time, which is inevitable, when all
our food production will be needed. When that time arrives, aid
won't be needed anymore.
My wish for the year 1983 is that soon the needed programs will
be put in place to put our industry on a sound footing, and help
pull our economy out of its mire at the same time.