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The Rural Voice, 1982-12, Page 18RALHEN HAMPSHIRES Registered R.O.P. breeding stock RALPH HENDERSON R.R. 1, Atwood, Ont. (519) 356-2656 4 BUTLER Ring Drive Silo Unloaders Big Jim Silo Unloaders Volume Belt Feeders Convey -n -Feed Cattle Feeders Single Chain Conveyors Barn Cleaners Oswalt Ensilmlxers FARMATIC Bender Hammer Mills Blender Roller Mills Blender Mills for Ground Hi -Moisture Corn Augers Leg Elevators ACORN Cable Barn Cleaners WESTEEL-ROSCO train Bins - 1350 to 250,000 bu. Bulk Feed Tanks ACME Fan -Jet Ventilation Systems HOULE Uquid Manure Pumps, Cleaners, Steel Trusses BSL Complete Hog Confinement Systems SLURRY -SLINGER Uquid Manure Spreaders CLAY Parts and Service for Clay Equipment ALSO Fibre -Funnels Electric Feed Carts Ritchie Heated Bowls Straw Choppers Hurst Equipment WE HANDLE EVERYTHING - ALMOST Zeginv ?won Svatema ,ems. At Amberley IR. R. 111, Kincardine] Phone 395-5286 PG. 18 THE FARM MARKET PERSPECTIVE by John DePutter The world is getting smaller every day and international events can influence decisions you make about your farm business. In this monthly column John DePutter will be alerting Rural Voice readers to trends which could affect the farming community. Since market news it outdated as soon as it is written due to shifts in government policies, weather, political events, etc., readers should be aware that these articles were prepared Nov. 6, 1982. RURAL VOICE/DECEMBER 1982 orad Corn Market Outlook Gets Glim- mer Of Hope: The 1982 U.S. corn crop will be at least 8.32 billion bushels, according to most estimiates up to November 8th. And carryover estimates are still increasing, with excess amounts after the 1982-83 marketing year pegged at more than 3.3. billion bushels. That's the bad news. The good news is that the US Dept of Agriculture has pulled out the plugs in an effort to boost prices. They've instituted a credit program that has brought Morroco and other buyers into the grain markets. That's the demand side. On the supply side, USDA already has offered a juicy reduced acreage program and is said to be considering making its paid land diversion better yet. On Fri. Nov. 5th, an 81/4 cent rally in December corn futures gave hope that the price downtrend may be stalled. But burdensome supplies are expected to cap rallies. Expect Big Tax Bites In Coming Years: Now is the time to do some tax planning, if your fiscal year ends Dec. 3Ist. The tax bite on anybody making a profit, even a small profit, is expected to grow as federal deficits grow. Also, in tough economic times you can expect federal governments (and all governments) to nail down every penny of tax income they can. Finance Minister Lalonde said in his recent speech, "this government will continue to act decisively to ensure that the strong and more affluent among us help the weak and the more vulnerable through these difficult times." This may be a good philosophy but it means anybody making a profit will have to pay an astute accountant and use sharp tax planning to avoid being taken to the cleaners by the tax man. American Farmers To See Low Profits Through Much Of 1983: That is the prediction of a U.S. Agriculture Dept. report. It says that during the rest of 1982 and '83, farmers will likely face low crop prices, reduced rates of return, and cash flow problems. They'll also face interest rates that are declining, but are still high relative to the inflation rate, according to the report. U.S. Election Results: Implications: Some press reports claimed Democrats did well on Nov. 2nd. Really, the Reagan Republi- cans did well. Normally in a recession the ruling party loses heavily. Republicans lost some ground but not as much as the governing party usually does in tough times. It was important that Republicans kept control of the Senate. The election results mean Reaganomics will continue. Expect continuation of the U.S. farm loan program; expect the trend to less inflation to continue, with less fear of hyper -inflation; and expect Reagan's team to work hard to make its forecast of economic recovery by spring to come true. (Do not expect a surging, robust economic turnaround, say most analysts. But a stabilizing or slightly improved situation is possible.) Rural Economic Turnaround Farther Away: With the farm machinery industry devastated, and with grain prices so far below the cost of production, an econo- mic recovery in small town Ontario is a long ways off yet. That, according to a U.S. market information firm (RWA) which suggested that recovery in some sectors other than agriculture may be imminent. Demand Plus Lower Brazilian Production Helps Soys Prices: Demand for soybeans, oil and meal by European buyers has been brisk, according to US trade sources. Meanwhile, domestic crushers are bidding actively for soybeans which U.S. and Ontario farmers are stubbornly holding off the market. Most analysts are convinced that soybeans have moved from a downtrend into an uptrend. Along with emphasis on demand, traders will be watching South American soya produc- tion for keys to price moves. Right now, it appears acreage in Brazil will be 10 to 150/0 below year ago levels. And heavy rains accompanied by vicious winds in early November may have washed away fertilizer and done enough general dam- age that yields in the major province of Rio Grade do Sul will be down 1001o. It is