The Rural Voice, 1982-11, Page 14The world is getting smaller every da r and
international events can influence deci-
sions you make about your farm busiltess.
Starting this month John DePutter will be
alerting Rural Voice readers to trends
which could affect the farthing commu-
nity. Since market news is outdated as
soon as it is written due to shifts in
government policies, weather, political
events, etc., readers should be aware that
these articles were prepared during the
first week in October.
Glancing At Ontario Corn Markets, new
crop prices are around the $2.25 area at
time of writing. (Price to the producer
delivering new crop corn to country
elevators during the October to December
period.) Substantial premiums which
existed for scarce supplies of old crop, or
early new crop, are fast disappearing as
the new crop harvest begins.
Ontario corn growers were hoping to
utilize the Federal Advance Payments for
Crops Act, however they have no
organization with which to administer the
payments. Agriculture Minister Whelan
has reiterated that this program will not
be available unless the commodity is
represented by a recognized organization
RALHEN
HAMPSHIRES
Registered R.O.P.
breeding stock
RALPH HENDERSON
R.R. 1, Atwood, Ont.
(519) 356-2656
PG. 14 THE RURAL VOICE / NOVEMBER
WORLD MARKET PERSPECTIVE
which can dole out the dues. Some co-ops
are looking into getting the payments for
their particular members. The Federation
of Agriculture has organized meetings to
see if there is support for a provincial
organization. Nothing is secured yet
although most counties seem to be
showing support for some kind of a
representative body.
U.S. Corn Futures: Downtrend Stalled
But For How Long??? Many U.S.
analysts believe corn futures are headed
for new lows. Some place Chicago
December futures at $2.10, others are
shooting for a bottom of $2.00, and there
are some who figure the nearby futures
could sink to $1.80 or there -abouts.
There is however, the odd trader who
thinks U.S. Agriculture Secretary John
Block's announcement of a 10% reduced
acreage program plus a 10% set-aside will
reduce production enough to end the
downtrend very soon.
1983 Futures Respond To Block's
Program. December 1983 futures said
"thanks" to the USDA by moving
sharply higher, above the $2.75 mark on
the Chicago Board of Trade. This is about
50 cents above 1982 December futures.
The program, according to an econo-
mist with the American Farm Bureau
Federation, should entice farmers to sign
up with much more enthusiasm than the
1982 program, which got fewer than 2507o
of growers complying.
Farmers who join the 1983 program by
reducing their feed grain acreage by a
total of 2007o, will enjoy not only access to
government storage programs, but also an
up front cash payment.
The Program Is Positive To Corn But
Could Be Negative For Soybean Prices.
This is because acres taken out of corn
could go into beans. However, from
another standpoint, farmers might be
ready to grab the USDA program for its
protection and actually plant corn that
they otherwise might have not planted.
Soybeans Remain Subject To World
Economy. Even more important that the
USDA program at this point in time is
world demand. Soybeans, being the
world's leading protein, are subject to the
whims of the world economy. An
economic upturn would be beneficial
indeed. However, prices as U.S. harvest
progresses are crawling around the base-
ment, with levels of $5.00 per bushel
(U.S.) being offered at some American
locations to farmer sellers. The U.S.
government support level is $5.02.
1982
The Russians Are Bottom Pickers, tradi-
tionally trying to grab big grain amounts
when markets are at their cheapest. They
must figure corn prices have not yet
bottomed, because on Sept. 28th, it was
announced that they bought only 750,000
metric tons of corn for delivery during the
1982/83 marketing year. In making the
announcement, U.S. Agriculture Secre-
tary John Block tried to sound bullish,
saying that this sale marks the first of
many to come.
Traders Interpreted The Announcement
As Bearish, because rumours prior to the
announcement were that more than
double that amount had been contracted.
Most traders figure that USDA will
have to lower its export estimates to the
USSR significantly in the October supply -
demand report, which will increase carry-
over. The carryover figure for the end of
the 1982/83 marketing year for corn
could be 3 billion bushels yet.
Meanwhile, Wheat is the Most Disap-
pointing Market, with Chicago December
futures down below $3.30 bushel. Other
wheat markets traded in Minneapolis,
Kansas City and Winnipeg are not quite
so bad, but are nothing to write home
about. The Chicago market is the biggest,
and no major upturn on the other three
can be expected until Chicago finally
fights off the bear claws.
Windsor Packers Is in Receivership.
Agriculture Minister for Ontario, Dennis
Timbrell, has reported that only three
farmers have indicated they sold cattle
that were not paid for. Timbrell says the
new Financial Protection Package is in
effect for this business problem.
Statscan Says Farmers In New Brunswick
Had Biggest Percentage Increase In 1981
Realized Income. N.B. was up 85%, from
32.9 million dollars in 1980, to 60.9 min in
1981. P.E.I. was second, up 72.7%.
spud prices were sighted as major reason.
Manitoba And Ontario Crop Insurance
Commissions Are Giving More Than
Taking. In Manitoba, the frost will put
the insurance corporation in the red
because 30 million dollars in claims
...second highest amount in history, will
be paid. Frost was the big culprit; also
disease and hail. In Ontario, frost killed
enough tobacco to hit the commission up
for a major pay -out. Tobacco damage is
pegged at 85 million dollars compared to
federal government contributions and
farmer premiums of about 32 million
dollars.