The Rural Voice, 1982-01, Page 8Help needed: fast
That's the message from the OFA task force
There is a need for immediate
assistance by governments to an ailing
farm industry in Ontario.
That is the message the OFA Emer-
gency Task Force on Agriculture gave
society in its report to the OFA annual
convention recently.
The task force, under the chairmanship
of former Deputy Minister of Agriculture
for Ontario, Everett Biggs, said the future
of our total food industry is in jeopardy,
which threatens future food supplies.
The task force met, in the eight weeks
of its existence, with federal and
provincial governments, and held
hearings throughout the province for
input from the farms, financial and supply
industries.
At the hearings it became evident that
farmers laid most of the blame on both
senior levels of government and on the
banks.
They also proposed a variety of
solutions to the problems, ranging from
different types of financial relief to
restriction of food imports and promotion
of exports ; from supply -management to
better stablization policies.
The size of the budgets tor agriculture
in Ontario and Canada was deplored and
the task force said OMAF should help
farmers to learn better financial manage-
ment, and teach consumers more ap-
preciation of the low cost of food in this
country.
Interest rates were the biggest concern,
with high input costs and low commodity
prices close behind.
For long-term solutions 29 of 173 briefs
presented proposed supply management,
while six briefs opposed that concept.
For long-term solutions 29 of 173 briefs
presented proposed supply management
while six briefs opposed that concept of
the 173 briefs, 44 wanted interest relief on
short and/or on long term investments.
The brief by the Canadian Bankers
Association was particularly interesting.
"In virtually all of the some 830
agri-branches in the province, agriculture
is a major component of their commercial
loan portfolios," it said. The bankers
expect "a significant number of failures"
if interest rates remain high and prices
low.
It is interesting to note that local
bankers, dealing with that "major
component" were not better educated in
giving advice to their "major" clients
during the last several years. The task
force found that by far the most farmers in
Ontario and elsewhere (68.6 per cent)
relied on their banker for financial advice.
The bankers had collected evidence that
more than one third of producers blamed
poor management by producers for their
financial plight. Over -borrowing came
close, with 26.8 per cent. In light of the
rate of advice by bankers, they should
bear part of the blame for that over-
borrowing.
The differences in agricultural support
policies between provinces was re-
peatedly pointed out to the task force, with
frequent singling .out of Quebec as an
example. This reflects less resentment
against other provinces as much as
resentment against a lack of support in
Ontario.
The task force washed its hands of the
supply management controversy by
stating it could only be seen as a long term
solution and secondly, it was up to farmers
themselves.
On frequent accusations that the
Canadian government nurtures a "cheap
food policy", the "Task Force believes
that no visible long term agricultural
policy exists at either Provincial or Federal
level".
In.. its conclusions, the task force says
the number of farmers in financial trouble
Please turn to page 30
Commodity Outlook
by Adrian Vos
Before we begin with our agricultural crystal ball gazing we must remind you that any prediction by any economist is no more than an
educated guess. While some of the predictors have been more accurate (educated) than others, no one has ever been accurate with any
consistency.
For a time it appeared that the computer would do what the human brain is incapable of, but finally it has been admitted the machine is
also imperfect.
It had to fail, because computer input is done by the human brain, so the computer acts on inputs, limited by educated guesses.
A drought of favourable weather in the southern hemisphere in harvest time in January and February, can alter the price of grains
drastically, taking with it all predictions about meat prices.
A political decision affecting interest rates can affect consumer buying to the extent that there will be a switch from one meat product to
another, cheaper one. And finally the predictions of nationally know economists itself have a strong influence on production decisions by
farmers, opposite to the predictions.
Keeping that in mind, let us discuss the various commodities grown and produced in our area.
CORN
The corn crop, both in Canada and in
the U.S. has been one of the best in recent
PG. 8 THE RURAL VOICE/JANUARY 1982
years.
In addition, many farmers in financial
difficulties have offered their crop for sale
now, a crop which in other years they kept,
in tue expectation of ntgner prices after
the harvest glut had cleared the market.
And finally, farmers have taken their
calculators to figure out what costs more,