The Rural Voice, 1979-05, Page 11Rural Voice takes on the almanac
Farmers' almanacs, the books sometimes considered to be the
bible of weather predictions., are a popular way of using
climatology information accumulated over the years.
The basis for much of the information in the almanac is the fact
if it has snowed 46 out of 50 years on Jan. 19, then there's a fair
chance of predicting it will snow again this year on the same
date.
Now although we don't want to disparage farmers' almanacs,
The Rural Voice staff discovered that the general weather
predictions in our Canadian Farm and Home Almanac, 1979
edition, weren't quite on target as far as the first two weeks of
April was concerned.
The almanac predicted a stormy period around the Great
Lakes for the first three days. In actual fact, the weather was
And guess who's right?
closer to fair conditions.
From April 4th to 7th, the almanac promised "a fair time in
the central and western provinces." Instead we had rain on
Wednesday, April 4, rain and a freak thunderstorm and then
snow on April 5 and a serious winter storm that night which
ontinued through April 7. All totally unpredicted by our almanac.
The almanac was correct in predicting an unsettled time for
April 8th. to 11th and western Ontario had a fair period from
April 16th to 19th., (after the Easter weekend) which turned out
to be exactly what the almanc predicted for Ontario.
What does our experiment prove? Just that almanacs, like
weather forecasters, are fallible. We can only conclude, to
paraphrase a popular television commercial, that only Mather
Nature knows for sure!
Accurate weather information
BY ALICE GIBB
For most city dwellers, the weather in the spring or summer
may be little more than a mild annoyance, worth a casual
comment now or then when it doesn't live up to expectations.
But for people earning their livelihood from agriculture, specific
weather information is a must.
The most common source of information for the farm
population is the farm weather bulletin, issued from the Toronto
weather office early each morning. and updated at noon during
the summer months. This bulletin, issued by Environment
Canada, covers a five day period, with detailed information on
precipitation, temperatures, wind velocity and the drying index
for the first two days, and slightly less detailed forecasts for the
following three days.
Len Lauzon, who mans the Mount Forest weather station, said
he phones this weather bulletin into CKNX radio in W'ingham
every day and the report is put on tape.
This is broadcast on CKNX in the morning and weather
reports are updated throughout the day as further information
becomes available.
But Len Lauzon also gets a number of calls from individual
farmers, right from planting time on. He said one of his busiest
ti mes for calls is during spraying season and again at harvest.
F� rmers harvesting hay are interested in specific information on
..,c drying index while livestock producers want to know the
day's forecast so they can decide whether or not to transport
livestock.
Mr. Lauzon said farmers are always welcome to call the
weather station for information. The station used to also supply
radio station CFOS in Owen Sound with the farm weather
bulletin but the station now uses a three day forecast they
receive directly on the wire from Toronto.
Graham Campbell, a weather technician at the Sky Harbour
Weather Station in Goderich, said his office also receives a
number of calls from farmers for drying conditions and weather
forecasts during harvest. He gets a number of the harvest calls
from area white bean growers.
He said the first forecast of the da 's issued at 6 a.m. when
it's picked up on the teletype system from Toronto. Mr.
It's crucial and it's hard to find
Campbell said his station has tried to contact CKNX and tell the
news department that "we feel there is enough difference (in
weather) between here and Mount Forest" to justify CKNX
relaying weather information from Goderich as well.
SEVERE WARNINGS
Mr. Campbell said his weather station, and the others in the
area, are now involved in a plan for get g out detailed severe
weather warnings to the public.
Under the program, recently announced by George McPher-
son, Ontario regional director of Environment Canada's
Atmospheric Environment Service, up to six hours warning will
be given for severe summer weather such as violent winds,
heavy rains or hail.
The success of the service will rest to a large extend on reports
from volunteer weather watchers who will support the team of
professional meteorologists in the Ontario Weather Centre,
Toronto.
Two types of messages will be issued to warn Ontario
residents of possible danger from impending storms. A severe
weather watch, usually issued as a first level alert, indicates a
high potential for dangerous local storms at some later time,
usually one to six hours away.
A severe weather warning will mean that dangerous
thunderstorms or a tornado is either occurringeor likely to occur,
usually within the hour. Both messages will outline the areas
affected or likely to be affected by the storms.
The third station in the Perth -Huron -Bruce area is the Wiarton
weather station. Tony McNamara said their station is primarily _
oriented toward marine and aviation weather forecasts. While
they do have the farm weather bulletin available for callers, Mr.
McNamara said eventually they may not even have primary
public forecasts available through their weather station.
Although the London weather office is outside the boundaries
of local counties, many area farmers depended on this office for
its weather radar service.
The weather radar service, which was picked up near Exeter
on an elaborate weather installation and transmitted to London
and Toronto by means of a land line, offered very precise local
weather conditions for the next two or three hours. This
THE RURAL VOICE/MAY 1979 PG. 9