HomeMy WebLinkAboutFarming '88, 1988-03-30, Page 51FARMING ’88, WEDNESDAY, MARCH 30, 1988. PAGE 27.
U.S. hog population expected to increase
Continued from page 26
herd in eastern Canada.
Hogs:
• A strong reversal in hog
marketing trends in the United
States is the major factor impacting
the pork sector. Hog production
has been growing steadily in
Canada since 1980 but persistent
declines in the U.S. have now
turned to a significant increase and
U.S. hog marketings are expected
to increase to over 90 million head
in 1989 -- up from less than 80
million in 1986.
• Pork production in Canada, up
more than three per cent in 1987,
will probably grow by eight per
cent - nine per cent in 1988. Prices
in 1987 were better than expected
and down by only three per cent to
average $79.75 in Toronto. How
ever, in 1988 market hog prices are
forecast to decline by as much as
25 per cent and average about $60
for the year.
• Expanding breeding herds in
response to high prices and
profitable production will result in
over 16 million hogs marketed in
Canada in 1989. Prices are expect
ed to weaken by a further $2-$3 in
1989, making producers depen
dent on large stabilization pay
ments to maintain cash flow.
• By 1990-1991 hog prices are
expected to move back to $76-$78
range at Toronto as U.S. produc
tion declines.
• With the trend in growth rates
2-3 times greater in western than
eastern Canada, almost40 per cent
of Canada’s hog production is
expected to be in the west by
mid-1990s, up from 30 per cent at
beginning of 1980s and about 35
per cent now.
• Given unrestricted access to
United States market, Canadian
pork exports to the U.S. should
increase substantially in 1988 and
1989 to absorb Canada’s larger
production.
Poultry:
• Chicken production, up eight
per cent in 1987, is expected to
increase aboutfiveper centper
year through to 1991.
• Continued strong demand,
especially from restaurants and
institutional markets, will protect
against low pork prices and keep
chicken prices stable this year,
with increases from two per cent -
five per cent annually after 1988.
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• Turkey prices should hold level
this year and increase two per cent -
five per cent annually beyond 1988
as production costs increase and
impact of pork competition sub
sides.
Dairy:
• The dairy sector continues to
provide a stable return for about
40,000 Canadian producers, about
25 per cent in Ontario. Internation
al prices have improved and
domestic consumption continues
to grow steadily, especially in
cheeses, yogurt and ice cream.
• Industrial milk production,
nationally about 70 per cent larger
than fluid production, is projected
to grow at 0.5 per cent per year and
fluid production at one per cent in
line with population increases.
• Number of dairy cows' will
decline by one per cent per year as
per-cow outputgrows from pro
ducers seeking increased profita
bility through lower production
costs.
• Milk prices, stable for the past
three years, will continue so in
1988. Butexpected increases in
soybean meal costs and some
upward trend in feed grain prices
and other inputs, along with
demand growth, are expected to
increase prices at three per cent to
five per cent per year thereafter.
Grain-Oilseeds:
• In the grain and oilseed sector,
which generates at least one-third
of all Canada’s farm income and
two-thirds of all crop income,
prices are bottoming out and will
be trending upward very slowly in
the 1988-89 crop year.
• The foundation is being laid for
ultimate return to financial health
of world grain sector: an example
was a decline in world wheat
production of almost five per cent
to 506 million tonnes, less than the
522 million tonnes the world used,
the first time usage has exceeded
production in the 1980s.
• Alsofor the second year in a
row, world wheat trade will
increase this crop year by about
seven per cent to 96 million tonnes,
a trend expected to continue at
annual rate of about three per cent.
• Coarse grain production world
wide declined three per cent to 807
million tonnes; with usage at 816
million tonnes stocks will decline
by year end to 204 million tonnes.
• However, world wheat and
coarse grain stocks at 1987-88 crop
year-end will still be burdensome,
about 25 per cent of annual
utilization for both. This is about 15
per cent higher than for coarse
grains in 1984 and 25 per cent
greater than the high 1982 level for
wheat.
• Prices, as a result, are
expected to be very stable and
dependent on any development
that will influence the direction of
world stock-to-utilization ratios.
Declining trends should slow and
be increasing by a small amount
late in 1988.
• Recent changes in feed
transportation assistance policy
will increase cost of transporting
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feed grains from Western Canada,
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over prairie barley. Corn prices
have bottomed-out and are expect
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• Demand for protein meal will
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Soybean prices will remain strong
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• Following significant price
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• Vegetable prices will trend
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• The tobacco market has been
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FARMING
Telephone: 356-2427
HWY.#86E.,
WINGHAM
Lynn Hoy Enterprises
Ltd.357-3435