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HomeMy WebLinkAboutFarming '88, 1988-03-30, Page 51FARMING ’88, WEDNESDAY, MARCH 30, 1988. PAGE 27. U.S. hog population expected to increase Continued from page 26 herd in eastern Canada. Hogs: • A strong reversal in hog marketing trends in the United States is the major factor impacting the pork sector. Hog production has been growing steadily in Canada since 1980 but persistent declines in the U.S. have now turned to a significant increase and U.S. hog marketings are expected to increase to over 90 million head in 1989 -- up from less than 80 million in 1986. • Pork production in Canada, up more than three per cent in 1987, will probably grow by eight per cent - nine per cent in 1988. Prices in 1987 were better than expected and down by only three per cent to average $79.75 in Toronto. How­ ever, in 1988 market hog prices are forecast to decline by as much as 25 per cent and average about $60 for the year. • Expanding breeding herds in response to high prices and profitable production will result in over 16 million hogs marketed in Canada in 1989. Prices are expect­ ed to weaken by a further $2-$3 in 1989, making producers depen­ dent on large stabilization pay­ ments to maintain cash flow. • By 1990-1991 hog prices are expected to move back to $76-$78 range at Toronto as U.S. produc­ tion declines. • With the trend in growth rates 2-3 times greater in western than eastern Canada, almost40 per cent of Canada’s hog production is expected to be in the west by mid-1990s, up from 30 per cent at beginning of 1980s and about 35 per cent now. • Given unrestricted access to United States market, Canadian pork exports to the U.S. should increase substantially in 1988 and 1989 to absorb Canada’s larger production. Poultry: • Chicken production, up eight per cent in 1987, is expected to increase aboutfiveper centper year through to 1991. • Continued strong demand, especially from restaurants and institutional markets, will protect against low pork prices and keep chicken prices stable this year, with increases from two per cent - five per cent annually after 1988. Getting The Best SOMETIMES THE TOUGHEST JOB IS TURNING OFF THE KEY. Now fully equipped to handle all of your I.C.M. Needs PRECISION FERTILIZER APPLICATION SPRAYING TRAM LINING, ETC. PLUS FULL RANGE OF CUSTOM SERVICES • Turkey prices should hold level this year and increase two per cent - five per cent annually beyond 1988 as production costs increase and impact of pork competition sub­ sides. Dairy: • The dairy sector continues to provide a stable return for about 40,000 Canadian producers, about 25 per cent in Ontario. Internation­ al prices have improved and domestic consumption continues to grow steadily, especially in cheeses, yogurt and ice cream. • Industrial milk production, nationally about 70 per cent larger than fluid production, is projected to grow at 0.5 per cent per year and fluid production at one per cent in line with population increases. • Number of dairy cows' will decline by one per cent per year as per-cow outputgrows from pro­ ducers seeking increased profita­ bility through lower production costs. • Milk prices, stable for the past three years, will continue so in 1988. Butexpected increases in soybean meal costs and some upward trend in feed grain prices and other inputs, along with demand growth, are expected to increase prices at three per cent to five per cent per year thereafter. Grain-Oilseeds: • In the grain and oilseed sector, which generates at least one-third of all Canada’s farm income and two-thirds of all crop income, prices are bottoming out and will be trending upward very slowly in the 1988-89 crop year. • The foundation is being laid for ultimate return to financial health of world grain sector: an example was a decline in world wheat production of almost five per cent to 506 million tonnes, less than the 522 million tonnes the world used, the first time usage has exceeded production in the 1980s. • Alsofor the second year in a row, world wheat trade will increase this crop year by about seven per cent to 96 million tonnes, a trend expected to continue at annual rate of about three per cent. • Coarse grain production world­ wide declined three per cent to 807 million tonnes; with usage at 816 million tonnes stocks will decline by year end to 204 million tonnes. • However, world wheat and coarse grain stocks at 1987-88 crop year-end will still be burdensome, about 25 per cent of annual utilization for both. This is about 15 per cent higher than for coarse grains in 1984 and 25 per cent greater than the high 1982 level for wheat. • Prices, as a result, are expected to be very stable and dependent on any development that will influence the direction of world stock-to-utilization ratios. Declining trends should slow and be increasing by a small amount late in 1988. • Recent changes in feed transportation assistance policy will increase cost of transporting VRLfTlETRLl FEEDING SYSTEM •SILO UNLOADER •BATCH MIXER ‘TUMBLER MIXER •ROLLER MILL ’SINGLE CHAIN CONVEYOR •BELT CONVEYOR’BELTFEEDER We also have: •DUALITY PLUS STABLING ’SEWAGE PUMPS •CALF HUTCHES ’PARTS FOR MOST MAKES OF SILO UNLOADERS Sold and Serviced by: CLARKHILL FEEDERS LTD. Goderich [519)524-4367 Philip Clark RR 5, Mgr Thanks to Honda s new FOURTRAX 300, going to work in the outdoors just got easier. And a lot more fun. For starters, theres an all new 282 cc four-stroke engine that's like a bulldog when it comes to power and torque. It springs into action at the touch of a button, smooths out the toughest terrain with heavy- duty. long travel suspension, and makes short work of obstacles with big 23-inch front tires and a turning circle feed grains from Western Canada, to the advantage of Ontario corn over prairie barley. Corn prices have bottomed-out and are expect­ ed to rise very gradually to over $100/tonne at the farm level by 1991. • Demand for protein meal will increase with growth in poultry, pork and beef markets, which will be positive for soybean sector. Soybean prices will remain strong and increase gradually to about $285/tonne by 1991. • Canola is expected to become a more significant crop in Ontario and prices will generally track of 2.5 metres <8.2 ft.). It's one heavy-duty machine. The only thing light about this FOURTRAX is its weight - 200 kg <440.8 lb). Tubular steel front and rear carriers plus a standard trailer hitch that pulls 385. 5 kg (850 lb), plus power to spare if you need to do a little pushing, too. All this power is yours in a smooth five-speed transmis­ sion with reverse gear and automatic clutch designed to take a load off your hands. FOURTRAX 500 closely to its main competitor, soybeans. Specialty Crops: • Following significant price drops in 1987, white bean prices should increase about six per cent in 1988. • Vegetable prices will trend downward again, so growers will need to watch costs closely to capitalize on market opportunities. • The tobacco market has been cutin half in the space of five years, but now appears to have stabilized. Production in 1988 will be about the same as last year, and grower prices could be slightly higher. Whether you're hauling wood, or hauling in the fish.a FOURTRAX 300 gets it done. But be forewarned. Once you start one up. you 'll find it hard to turn off It's that much fun. So come in soon and check out a FOURTRAX 300. HONDA FOURTRAX Ride the Rough Country. BOB YULE CUSTOM FARMING Telephone: 356-2427 HWY.#86E., WINGHAM Lynn Hoy Enterprises Ltd.357-3435