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Inflation, not recession is still
the major problem in Canada
according to Cliff. Shewfelt from
the Agricultural Department of
the Royal Bank of Canada.
Mr: Shewfelt, speaking to
about 200 farmers at the monthly
meeting of the Huron County
Federation of Agriculture at the
Turnberry Central School,
Wingham said that the Bank is
expecting a real growth rat e of
three per cent in the next year.
Inflation is still a very real
problem, he said. Unemployment
is still not 'high enough to hint
that' recession is as serious in
Canada as in the United States,
he warned, however, that there is
usually a six-month lag between
trends'in the U.S. and Canada. If
recession hits Canada, he warned
the farmers to be in a stable
financial position. "The banks
will stick with you" he promised.
Asked for indicators to watch
for to tell if recession is setting in
he said to keep an eye on the
Bank of Canada interest rate
which will drop if recession seems
close; watch the housing starts
which will decline; watch
unemployment which will
increase and grain exports which'
will decrease.
"Recession takes effect," he
said, "when industry in general
Says "Whoa", that's enough.. If it
has to pay higher salaries to some
workers, it will layoff others."
The comments on the economy
came during a question and
answer period at the end of Mr.
Shewfelt's speech on farm
financing.
He said credit was a two-edged
sword. During times of inflation
orstrong growth, he said, use of
credit could mean big gains.
During times of recession, he
said, the cost of credit could cut
deeply into the reserves of a
business in the form of cash,
land, machinery -or stock,
People should think of
productive credit he said,
meaning the borrowed money
must return the cost of the
Experimental Farm here.
Studies at the Greenbelt Farm
-- with its 2,400 acres of arable
land -- involve a large-scale
project, while those at the Central
Experimental Farm revolve
around test plots, each measuring
40 feet by '250 feet.
The large-scale project is
four parts:
--a 200-acre watershed where
liquid manure and commercial
fertilizer arc used for normal crop
-production is the site for
gathering results on. the general
nutrient losses to surface waters
-- in this case, a stream at the
lower end of the site. An
automatic w atter-quality sampler
and flow-measurement station
arc gathering the data.
--more detailed results on
manure nutrient accumulation in
a clay soil and losses in sub-
surface flow are gathered on a
10-acre single-crop site by
measuring tile drail effluent
quantity and quality, ground-
water quality beneath the study
site and nutrient accumulations in
the soil.
--the movement of nutrients
and their accumulations in a
deep, coarse-textured soil under
relatively high rates of manure
application are being measured.
Soil samples are gathered at
selected sites within the study
area and analyzed.
--meters have been placed
;wound an underground concrete
manure storage tank at the
Greenbelt Farm, to determine'
N.liether or not nutrients are
leaking into the groundwater.
Research in each segment of
the project involves installing and
maintaining equipment and col-
lecting samples and other data by
the Engineering Research Ser.
vice; analyzing water, manure,
soil samples and related data by
the Soil Research Institute; and
providing information on planted
crops 'and manure applications by
the, Animal Research Institute.
At the Central Experimental.
Farm, the test plots are used as
the basis for study on ' the
movement and accumulation' of
nutrients iii poorly drained soil
under various times and rates of
application of tnatittre,
The project should result in
clearly defined methods of using,
animal Manure ag a tertiliZer
While ptotteting the
borrowing plus a profit. In times
of inflation this is. not difficult. In
times of recession, however, this
is much more difficult, The ratio
of borrowed capital to reap assets
needs to be higher in times of
recession he says. In times of
' loss, lie says, a farmer with only a
25 per cent equity in his farm
could be wiped out in only a year.
He told farmers that they
should have a good set of records
and facts of past per.formance in,
hand before going to see their
bank manager. He said farmers
must be able to display their total
reserves and the structure of their
assets and be able to explain what
they hope to achieve with the
credit they want.
Once you. have this
information, he said, talk eye-ball
to eye-ball to your banker. If he's
new, don't feel you have to test
him. If he doesn't .understand
farming, help him to understand
it rather than criticize him.
During the question period he
was asked how a young farmer
was supposed to get into business
without going deeply in debt. He
said he had worked on a high debt
ratio with some young farmers
because of their good education
and a solid farm background and
the results: were mixed. He
admitted the problem of getting
young people into farming is a
tough one.
"I don't know what we're
asking the next generation to do
when we're selling $1500-an-acre
land on the basis of three years of
$3,00 corn," he said. "How many
years did that land produce only
$1.00 corn?" But the financial
institutions can't be expected to
solve the whole problem, he said.
Commenting on Farm
Improvement Loans and the fact
banks are straying away from
them he said that the banks feel
they are fulfilling the spirit of the
Farm Improvement Act which
was to "encourage the banks to
lend term money to the farming
community".
Now, he said, the banks were
willing to provide term money to
farmers the same as to other
businesses and didn't need a kick
in the head," he said, which is
what the discounted interest rate
on F.I.L. means to the banks. The
government does not pick up the
tab for the discount so the bank
must. One per cent, he said, can
mean the difference between .
profit and loss for the banks.
(The Blyth Standard/
Smoking adds
red blood cells
Pack-a-clay smokers usually
have more red b food cells than do
nonsmokers. But extra cells can
cause blood clotting..
The job of the red blood cells is
to deliver oxygen to all the tissues
of the body. But smokers upset
this oxygen-delivery system. For
one thing, the carbon monoxide in
cigarette smok.e literally drives.
the oxygen out of the red blood
cells. And carbon monoxide stays
in the system, hours after the
smoker stops inhaling.
To compensate for this
disruption, the body may produce
more red blood cells in order to
get the necessary oxygen.
Compensation, however, may
cause complications., as the extra
cells produced can cause thicker.
blood and clotting. This is one
reason why smokers suffer from a
higher rate of strokes and heart
attacks than do nonsmokers.
Normally, there are about
thirty billion red blood cells
surging through the body at any
one tirne.A red cell spends only a
fraction of a second in the, lung,
where it absorbs oxygen and
speeds off to other parts of the
body. Red -blood cells have to be
incredibly fast and efficient. Each
red cell lasts about four months,
and is then replaced by a fresh,
new one.
Huron F of A hears
inflation, not recession is. big .problem
Manure use is studied
by Agriculture Canada
For centuries, farmers have
used animal manure as a natural
resource, storing it in piles before
spreading it on their land as
'ertilizer. It has been viewed as a
-.ide-benefit to keeping livestock.
Batt in recent years, animal
manure has been branded as a
potential source of pollution to
Canada's waterways. Without
proper storage, nutrients from
the manure can seep into nearby
'reeks; sub-surface water can be
°nominated by heavy applica-
'.ms of manure on a field.
Making maximum use of
manure as a natural resource
while causing minimum damage
in the environment is the aim of a
research project which involves
three services of Agriculture
Canada.
The project is led by Bob Here
of the department's Engineering
Research Service, and also
involves Agriculture Canada's
Animal Research Institute and
.;oil Research Institute.
"Knowledge of nutrient losses
t) water supplies and accumula-.
ions -in soils from varying appli-
eations of manure will contribute
to the development of regional
guidelines to control soil and
water pollution," says Mr. Horn.
"We are also studying the
legree and extent of nutrient
novement from stored manure,
.nd where pollution is found,
tractical control methods will be
.oveloped."
Early research in the project,
hick started in 1970 and is
xpected to continue for a
ccade, indicated that there is
-:inited reliable information on
he magnitude of pollution caused
iy nutrient runoff from agricul-
tural lands .under Canadian con-
ditions.
"Studies have also shown that
the practice of using small-scale
studies and projection of results
to large areas to be unreliable ;"
says the project leader. "These
studies emphasize the need for
field research studies to properly
evaluate` agricultural nutrient
contributions to our water
resotteces."
The approach in the Agrical
ture Canada project is to study
several regtreSentative field sites
in detail, and to synthesize these
results with known soil fertility
and hydrologic relationships. The
Sites- are at the department's
Greenbelt Patin and the Central environment.
4—THE BRUSSELS POST, JANUARY 29, 1979
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